Agrienvi : Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian
Vol. 13 No. 02 (2019): Journal Agrenvi Vol.13 No 02, Desember 2019

DOI: HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.36873/AE , FRITS FAHRIDWS DAMANIK: FRITS FAHRIDWS DAMANIK PERAMALAN PRODUKSI CABE BESAR DAN CABE RAWIT DI KALIMANTAN TENGAH DENGAN METODE ARIMA FORECASTING OF CHILLI AND SMALL CHILLI PRODUCTION IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN USING ARIMA METHOD

Agrienvi (Unknown)

Article Info

Publish Date
12 Feb 2020

Abstract

ABSTRACTChili is one of the leading commodities of vegetables which has strategic value at national and regional levels.An unexpected increase in chili prices often results a surge of inflation and economic turmoil. Study and modeling ofchili production are needed as a planning and evaluation material for policy makers. One of the most frequently usedmethods in modeling and forecasting time series data is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Avarage (ARIMA). Theresults of ARIMA modeling on chili production data found that the data were unstationer conditions of the mean so thatmust differenced while the data on the production of small chilli carried out the stages of data transformation anddifferencing due to the unstationer of data on variants and the mean. The best ARIMA model that can be applied basedon the smallest AIC and MSE criteria for data on the amount of chili and small chilli production in Central KalimantanProvince is ARIMA (3,1,0).Keywords: modeling of chilli, forecasting of chilli, Autoregresive Integrated Moving Avarage, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins.

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Journal Info
Agrienvi : Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian
Website

Abbrev

aev

Publisher

Universitas Palangka Raya

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

Description

Focus dan Scope AGRIENVI diterbitkan oleh Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Palangka Raya secara berkala setahun dua kali (bulan Juni dan Desember) yang memuat hasil penelitian, ulasan ilmiah, dan artikel di bidang Ilmu-ilmu Pertanian dan ...