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All Journal International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
Tonazisokhi Giawa
Universitas Prima Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Predicting the Spread of the Corona Virus (COVID-19) in Indonesia: Approach Visual Data Analysis and Prophet Forecasting Amir Mahmud Husein; Jefri Poltak Hutabarat; Jeckson Edition Sitorus; Tonazisokhi Giawa; Mawaddah Harahap
International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Vol 4, No 2 (2020): December 2020
Publisher : STMIK Dharma Wacana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (20.961 KB) | DOI: 10.29099/ijair.v5i1.192

Abstract

The development trend of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in various countries has become a global threat, including in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore. In this paper, we propose an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) model approach and a time series forecasting model using the Prophet method to predict the number of confirmed cases and cases of death in Indonesia in the next thirty days. We apply the EDA model to visualize and provide an understanding of this pandemic outbreak in various countries, especially in Indonesia. We present the trends in the spread of epidemics from the countries of China from which the virus originates, then mark the top ten countries and their development and also present the trends in Asian countries. We present an analytical framework comparing the predicted results with the actual data evaluated using the MAPE and MAE models, where the prophet algorithm produces good performance based on the evaluation results, the relative error rate of our estimate (MAPE) is around 6.52%, and the model average false 52.7% (MAE) for confirmed cases, while case mortality was 1.3% for the MAPE and MAE models around 236.6%. The results of the analysis can be used as a reference for the Indonesian government in making decisions to prevent its spread in order to avoid an increase in the number of deaths
Co-Authors Amir Mahmud Husein, Mawaddah Harahap, Amir Jeckson Edition Sitorus Jefri Poltak Hutabarat Mawaddah Harahap