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. Suciantini
Balai Penelitian Agroklimat dan Hidrologi
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

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EVALUASI PRAKIRAAN CURAH HUJAN BMG: STUDI KASUS KABUPATEN INDRAMAYU (EVALUATION OF BMG RAINFALL FORECASTING : CASE STUDY OF INDRAMAYU DISTRICT) . Suciantini; R. Boer; R. Hidayat
Agromet Vol. 20 No. 1 (2006): June 2006
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (291.117 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.20.1.34-43

Abstract

Indramayu District is one of paddy production area in West Java and it’s contribution to total province production around 35%. This district is very prone to drought and flood, especially when ENSO events. Therefore, ability to predict season onset and rainfall characteristics is necessary. The objective of this research is to evaluate the accuracy BMG’s (Meteorology and Geophysic Agency)forecast and improve Climate Forecasting Zone (CFZ) of Indramayu. The evaluation used predicton and observation data from 1987-2001 for rainfall characteristics and 1995-2001 for season onset using Chi-Square test. Improvement CFZ of Indramayu was analyzed using Principle Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis. Result of Chi-Square test indicate that rainfall characteristic forecast is significantly different with observation. But, prediction of season onset is relatively well. Generally, accuracy of season onset forecast at CFZ-6 is 57,1%, while at CFZ-7 around 50-85,7%. Accuracy rainfall characteristics forecast is between 43,6 % 44.8 %. The accuracy is still lower caused of two primary factor. First, regional division of Indramayu CFZ only divide into two zone i.e. CFZ-6 and CFZ-7 is too rough, where CFZ-6 represent 122.025 ha and CFZ-7 represent 81.986 ha, and rainfall variance in the same CFZ is still high. Second, statistical model that used to predict season onset and rainfall characteristics still is not appropriate with data characteristic. Furthermore, the result indicate that CFZ in Indramayu should be divided into eight CFZ from six CFZ before. Test of monthly rainfall data in the same CFZ using general linear model indicate that number of station which not include to the same CFZ decrease with increase of CFZ from six to eight.
PENILAIAN RISIKO IKLIM PADA SISTEM PERTANIAN EKOSISTEM LAHAN RAWA PASANG SURUT (STUDI KASUS DI DELTA TELANG I, DELTA TELANG II DAN DELTA AIR SALEH, BANYUASIN, SUMATERA SELATAN) (CLIMATE RISK ASSESMENT ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM IN SWAMP AREAS ... . Suciantini; . Impron; Rizaldi Boer
Agromet Vol. 22 No. 2 (2008): December 2008
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (428.797 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.22.2.118-131

Abstract

The characteristics of swampland areas are different from agricultural land of Java, mainly in water availability. In swampland ecosystems there are unique environmental conditions. To assess risks of climate, mainly in climate change, we must assess about capacity and adaptation strategy. From treasure of related institution and interview with farmers,its had been known about climate impact on farming systems application, rainfall pattern and water availability. This paper aims to assess risks of climate on farming systems, application of adaptation strategy to reduce risks of climate and probability to provide of planting pattern alternative in the future in swampland areas (tidal marsh) in Delta Telang I, Delta Telang II and Delta Air Saleh, Banyuasin, South Sumatera.
Co-Authors Impron Impron R. Boer R. Hidayat Rizaldi Boer