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All Journal Operations Research: International Conference Series
Fujika Novinta S
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Mathematics

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Application of ARIMA-GARCH Model for Prediction of Indonesian Crude Oil Prices Sukono Sukono; Emah Suryamah; Fujika Novinta S
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol 1, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v1i1.21

Abstract

Crude oil is one of the most important energy commodities for various sectors. Changes in crude oil prices will have an impact on oil-related sectors, and even on the stock price index. Therefore, the prediction of crude oil prices needs to be done to avoid the future prices of these non-renewable natural resources to increase dramatically. In this paper, the prediction of crude oil prices is carried out using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The data used for forecasting are Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) crude oil data for the period January 2005 to November 2012. The results show that the data analyzed follows the ARIMA(1,2,1)-GARCH(0,3) model, and the crude oil price forecast for December 2012 is 105.5528 USD per barrel. The prediction results of crude oil prices are expected to be important information for all sectors related to crude oil.
Co-Authors Emah Suryamah Sukono Sukono