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All Journal Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business Indonesian Capital Market Review
Erie Febrian
Faculty of Economics, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Cointegration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets for Risk Management and Portfolio Selection Herwany, Aldrin; Febrian, Erie
Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business Vol 10, No 3 (2008): September - December
Publisher : Master of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada

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Abstract

Both practitioners and academics demand a linkage model across financial markets, particularly among regional capital markets, for both risk management and portfolio selection purposes. Researchers frequently use cointegration and causality analysis in investigating the dependence or co-movement of three or more stock markets in different countries. However, they mostly conduct causality in mean tests but not causality in variance tests.This study assesses the cointegration and causal relations among seven developed Asian markets, i.e., Tokyo, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Shanghai, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur stock exchanges, using more frequent time series data. It employs the recently developed techniques for investigating unit roots, cointegration, time-varying volatility, and causality in variance. For estimating portfolio market risk, this study employs Value-at-Risk with delta normal approach. The results would recommend whether fund managers are able to diversify their portfolio in these developed stock markets either in long run or in short run.
Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets Febrian, Erie; Herwany, Aldrin
The Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 1, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006) framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1), GARCH(3,1), and GARCH (1,1), respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.
Co-Authors Aldrin Herwany Esi Fitriani Komara, Esi Fitriani Mokhamad Anwar, Mokhamad Rr. Iramani