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PUTU IKA OKTIYARI LAKSMI
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics

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PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARMAX DENGAN NILAI KURS DAN EKSPOR-IMPOR SEBAGAI FAKTOR EKSOGEN PUTU IKA OKTIYARI LAKSMI; KOMANG DHARMAWAN; LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 3 No 4 (2014)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2014.v03.i04.p076

Abstract

Forecasting is science to estimate occurrence of the future. This matter can be conducted by entangling intake of past data and place to the next period with a mathematical form. This research aims to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting Bali models using autoregressive moving average exogenous (ARMAX). The data used in this study is the number of tourists in Australia and the number of tourists in the RRC as a variable Y, and foreign currency exchange rate AUD, Chinese Yuan, and Export Import as the X factor from the period July 2009 to July 2014. In the analysis can be obtained in the best ARMAX models of the number of tourists in Australia is ARMAX(1,2,2) and the best model of the number of tourists in the RRC does not exist because the data for the ARMAX model parameters tourists no significant RRC.
Co-Authors Komang Dharmawan LUH PUTU IDA HARINI