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All Journal Jurnal Pendidikan Terbuka Dan Jarak Jauh Komputasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Lintang Patria
Universitas Terbuka
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Environmental Science Physics

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Fuzzy Time Series Application in Predicting the Number of Confirmation Cases of Covid-19 Patients in Indonesia Lintang Patria
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol 2, No 4 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v2i4.194

Abstract

Forecasting is a statistical method that can use historical data patterns to predict future events. This article discusses the prediction of the number of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 patients in Indonesia. The data used is from January 1, 2021 to August 7, 2021. The methods used are Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Chen (2014) and Cheng et al. (2008). FTS is a forecasting method that uses rules and logic on fuzzy sets. The level of prediction accuracy is then calculated based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The MAPE values of these two methods are then compared to know which method is more suitable in this case study. The results showed that FTS Chen produced an accuracy of 12.75% and FTS Cheng produced an accuracy of 14.27%. The results of this study indicate that FTS Chen and FTS Cheng produce good accuracy and can be used to predict new confirmed cases of Covid 19 sufferers in Indonesia.
Forecasting of the Cases of Covid-19 Patients in Indonesia using Fuzzy Time Series Lintang Patria
Komputasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika Vol 19, No 2 (2022): Komputasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika
Publisher : Ilmu Komputer, FMIPA, Universitas Pakuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33751/komputasi.v19i2.5446

Abstract

The main objective of this study is forecasting of the cases of covid-19 patients in indonesia using fuzzy time series. The data used is from February 1, 2022 to February 28, 2022. The methods used are Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Chen and FTS Cheng, using first order and second order. FTS is a forecasting method that uses rules and logic on fuzzy sets. The level of prediction accuracy is then calculated based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The MAPE values of these two methods are then compared to know which method is more suitable in this case study. The results showed that Fisrt Order FTS Chen produced an accuracy of 4,21% and Fisrt Order FTS Cheng produced an accuracy of 4,22%. Second Order FTS Chen and Second Order FTS Chen produced/1the same MAPE, 1,23%./1The results of this study indicate that Second Order FTS Chen and FTS Cheng produce good accuracy and can be used to predict new confirmed cases of Covid 19 sufferers in Indonesia.
Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Resistensi Mahasiswa Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi Universitas Terbuka Lintang Patria; Sri Utami; Deddy A Suhardi; Heny Kurniawati; Dian Nursantika
Jurnal Pendidikan Terbuka Dan Jarak Jauh Vol. 23 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33830/ptjj.v23i2.3944.2022

Abstract

Pandemi Covid-19 berdampak signifikan terhadap pembelajaran mahasiswa di perguruan tinggi. Adanya Covid-19 yang berdampak pada berbagai bidang kehidupan dapat mempengaruhi ketahanan mahasiswa untuk kuliah di UT. Selama ini strategi pembelajaran, faktor sosiodemografi, layanan tutorial, kemampuan akademik dan kepuasan mahasiswa terhadap layanan UT telah mempengaruhi resiliensi mahasiswa. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi daya tahan mahasiswa Universitas Terbuka selama masa pandemi COVID-19. Analisis data dilakukan dengan menggunakan Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa kondisi sosial ekonomi pada masa pandemi Covid 19 dan strategi pembelajaran berpengaruh signifikan terhadap resistensi registrasi mahasiswa. Tingkat resistensi (mahasiswa registrasi ulang) dipengaruhi oleh kemampuan mengatasi kendala sosial ekonomi pada masa pandemi (Sosvid, 0,49), kemampuan akademik (0,38), kondisi layanan UT (-0,16), layanan tutorial-praktikum (-0,20), dan strategi pembelajaran (-0,44). Keluaran dari penelitian ini adalah rekomendasi perbaikan dan inovasi layanan FST UT selama pandemi.
Co-Authors Deddy Ahmad Suhardi Dian Nursantika Heny Kurniawati Sri Utami