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DAMPAK PEMBALIKAN MODAL DAN THRESHOLD DEFISIT NERACA BERJALAN TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH M. Noor Nugroho; Ibrahim Ibrahim; Tri Winarno; Meily Ika Permata
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months. Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold. JEL Classification: F31, F32

CAPITAL FLOWS DI INDONESIA: PERILAKU, PERAN, DAN OPTIMALITAS PENGGUNAANNYA BAGI PEREKONOMIAN Fiskara Indawan; Sri Fitriani; Meily Ika Permata; Indriani Karlina
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 15 No 3 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Berlimpahnya likuiditas global paska krisis global mengakibatkan membanjirnya aliran modal internasional ke pasar Surat Utang Negara (SUN). Selain bermanfaat, aliran modal asing tersebut,berpotensi menimbul risiko pembalikan aliran modal asing yang dapat menimbulkan ketidakstabilan di pasar keuangan domestik. Paper ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan investasi investor asing, yang mencakup faktor risiko dan return yang berasal dari domestik (pull factor) dan global (push factor). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan push factor sangat berperan mempengaruhi perilaku investor asing di pasar SUN. Bagi investor long-term, perilaku mereka untuk menempatkan dananya di pasar SUN dipengaruhi push factor, tetapi tidak dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh pull factor. Namun bagi investor short-term, baik pull maupun push factor, mempengaruhi keputusan investasi mereka. Selain itu hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa ke depan, prospek investor asing di pasar SUN masih menghadapi tantangan khususnya dari sisi volatilitas yang relatif tinggi sebagai akibat dari sensitifnya investor asing terhadap shock yang sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi di tengah ketidakpastian kondisi pasar keuangan internasional akibat penyelesaian krisis utang di negara maju yang berlarut-larut. Dalam hal ini, Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah perlu terus mempertahankan upaya untuk menjaga dan mengelola return dan risiko investasi di dalam negeri pada level yang lebih kompetitif dan relatif rendah dengan menjaga kekuatan dan ketangguhan perekonomian serta stabilitas keuangan domestik.Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance.JEL Classification : F31, F34, G3

FENOMENA LABOR SHIFTING DALAM PASAR TENAGA KERJA INDONESIA Meily Ika Permata; Yanfitri Yanfitri; Andry Prasmuko
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon in Indonesian labor market. Labor shifting phenomenon in developing countries, including Indonesia, is considered to be the reason of stable movement from the supply perspective. By using Sakernas data year 1998-2008, this paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon, both the direction of labor movement and the characteristics of the shifting labor.The main conclusions obtained in this research are, first, there is no structural break in Indonesian labor market. Second, although most of labors tend to remain in the same sector or intra-sector, the analysis shows there is tendency for the labor to move from non formal sectors especially to Agricultural and Trade sectors. Third, the model estimation result with a series of controlled category shows the biggest three probability of not shifting and remaining in the same sectors are in Electricity sector (70,15%), Financial sector (55,8%) and Mining sector (53,13%). On the other side, the biggest labor mobility opportunity to conduct shifting is on Industry sector (80.14%), Construction sector (64.3%), and Transportation sector (62.4%).JEL classification: J23, J62, J64Keywords: Demand for Labor, Job Mobility, Labor shifting, Unemployment

DAMPAK PELAKSANAAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA Ibrahim Ibrahim; Meily Ika Permata; Wahyu Ari Wibowo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.

THE LABOR SHIFTING IN INDONESIAN LABOR MARKET Meily Ika Permata; Yanfitri Yanfitri; Andry Prasmuko
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon in Indonesian labor market. Labor shifting phenomenon in developing countries, including Indonesia, is considered to be the reason of stable movement from the supply perspective. By using Sakernas data year 1998-2008, this paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon, both the direction of labor movement and the characteristics of the shifting labor.The main conclusions obtained in this research are, first, there is no structural break in Indonesian labor market. Second, although most of labors tend to remain in the same sector or intra-sector, the analysis shows there is tendency for the labor to move from non formal sectors especially to Agricultural and Trade sectors. Third, the model estimation result with a series of controlled category shows the biggest three probability of not shifting and remaining in the same sectors are in Electricity sector (70,15%), Financial sector (55,8%) and Mining sector (53,13%). On the other side, the biggest labor mobility opportunity to conduct shifting is on Industry sector (80.14%), Construction sector (64.3%), and Transportation sector (62.4%).JEL classification: J23, J62, J64Keywords: Demand for Labor, Job Mobility, Labor shifting, Unemployment

Capital Flows in Indonesia: the Behavior, the Role, and Its Optimality Uses for the Economy Fiskara Indawan; Sri Fitriani; Meily Ika Permata; Indriani Karlina
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 15 No 3 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The abundance of global liquidity post the global crisis resulted in a huge amount of international capital flows to Government Securities (GS) market. Besides useful, the flow of foreign capital potentially give a risk reversal that may leads to instability in domestic financial market. This paper analyzes the determinant of foreign investors including the risk and returns, both from domestic (pull factor) as well as from global (push factor). The result shows that the push factor was instrumentally influence the behavior of foreign investors in the GS (Government Securities) market. For long-term investors, their behavior to place their funds in GS market is influenced by push factor, but not significantly affected by the pull factor. However, for short-term investors, both pull and push factors influence their investment decisions. In addition simulation results indicate that in the future, the prospect of foreign investors in the securities market still faces challenges, particularly from the relatively high volatility as a result of the shock sensitivity of foreign investors on shock that can happen in the uncertainty in the international financial markets due to ongoing debt crisis resolution in developed countries.Concerning these findings, Bank Indonesia and the government needs to maintain and manage the returns and risks of domestic investment on a more competitive and relatively low level by maintaining the strength and resilience of the domestic economy and financial stability. Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance.JEL Classification : F31, F34, G3

The Impact of Capital Reversal and the Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah M. Noor Nugroho; Ibrahim Ibrahim; Tri Winarno; Meily Ika Permata
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months. Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold.JEL Classification: F31, F32

APAKAH PERKEMBANGAN FINANSIAL MEREDAM ATAU MEMPERBESAR DAMPAK SUATU KEJUTAN? Meily Ika Permata; Ibrahim Ibrahim; Hidayah Dhini Ari
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 14 No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the role of financial development on economic output in Indonesia. Using vector autoregressive method, the results confirm the positive impact of financial development on output growth. The interaction between the financial development and the shock either in financial or real sector shows that the financial development has a positive role to dampen the negative impact of the shock on the output growth, while strengthen the positive one. Another variable on the model, which significantly affect the output growth are excess money, term of trade, and the price. Compare to these variables, the marginal effect of financial development on output is smaller.

DAMPAK PENCAPAIAN PERINGKAT KREDIT'INVESTMENT GRADE' INDONESIA TERHADAP COST OF BORROWING SURAT UTANG NEGARA INDONESIA Sri Fitriyani; Fiskara Indrawan; Meily Ika Permata; Indriani Karlina
Jurnal BPPK : Badan Pendidikan dan Pelatihan Keuangan Vol 5 (2012): Jurnal BPPK (Printed Version)
Publisher : Badan Pendidikan dan Pelatihan Keuangan - Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia

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In the midst of global uncertainty , the “investment grade” rating achievement at the end of 2011 and early 2012 has boosted optimistic sentiment to the surge of foreign capital flows and the decrease of borrowing cost for domestic investment activities. Empirical studies showed that this achievement would decrease the spread of sovereign bonds significanly along with the decline or probability of default and rise og investor base. Impluse response, using daily taransaction data tested with GARCH method , showed that sovereign spread would drop up to 80bps in 23 days since moody’s announcement on 18 january 2012. The global factor that also has significant influence to spread in global risk indicator. Spread would increase until 30 bps if there was 10 points rise in VIX Index. These results remind us the importance of having strong and resilience economic growth, socio-political, and macroeconomic stability supported by prudent fiscal and monetary policy, external factor sustainability, and improved investment climate.

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