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Wahyu Ari Wibowo

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IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL SHOCK TO INTERNATIONAL BANK LENDING IN INDONESIA Tumpak Silalahi; Wahyu Ari Wibowo; Linda Nurliana
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 15 No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study intends to determine whether a shock that occurred in developed countries, the source of funding, was transmitted to Indonesia through international bank lending both directly and indirectly. The methods used estimated the determinants of international bank lending. International bank lending is one form of capital flows that have the potential for rapid reversal and that can lead to a financial crisis as it has in the past. Understanding the determinants of bank lending is important as it can be used to mitigate the impact of a financial crisis in the future. The empirical results showed that international bank lending, either directly or indirectly, contributed to the Indonesian crisis. During the shock, Indonesia saw global banking contract financing. It was also found that credit activities by foreign affiliates in Indonesia saw a contraction in the country of the parent bank during the shock. However, it was found that the bank lending by foreign affiliates, as joint ventureswere more stable compared to the branch offices of a foreign bank. In aggregate, international bank lending is affected by push and pulls factors such as economic growth (in developed countries and Indonesia), risk factors, and liquidity conditions, both in Indonesia and globally. As for micro-banking models, other than the push and pull factors, the bank balance sheet and other portfolio assets also affected bank lending activities to Indonesia.Keywords: Global Financial Shocks, Foreign Affiliates, International Bank Lending, transmission path,dynamic panel.JEL Classification: C33, E51, G15

DAMPAK PELAKSANAAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA Ibrahim Ibrahim; Meily Ika Permata; Wahyu Ari Wibowo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.

DAMPAK PERSISTENSI EKSES LIKUIDITAS TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN MONETER M. Barik Bathaluddin; Nur M. Adhi P.; Wahyu Ari Wibowo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 14 No 3 (2012)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the excess liquidity especially on banking industry and its impact on monetary policy on Indonesia. We firstly investigate the determinants of bank behavior on their favor for excess liquidity both for precautionary motive and involuntary, and furthermore determine the threshold between low and high excess liquidity regimes. On the next step, this paper evaluates the impact of excess liquidity on monetary policy on the two regimes. Thefirst result shows that the excess liquidity on bank with their precautionary motive is significantly determined by the volatility of money demand, volatility of economic growth, the bank cost of the bank, and also the lag of excess liquidity, which conform its persistence. Secondly, using the Threshold-VAR approach, this paper shows the switching regime occurs in 2005 from low to high excess liquidity. Lastly, the excess liquidity reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy on controlling inflation.

IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL SHOCK TO INTERNATIONAL BANK LENDING IN INDONESIA Tumpak Silalahi; Wahyu Ari Wibowo; Linda Nurlian
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 15 No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study intends to determine whether a shock that occurred in developed countries, the source of funding, was transmitted to Indonesia through international bank lending both directly and indirectly. The methods used estimated the determinants of international bank lending. International bank lending is one form of capital flows that have the potential for rapid reversal and that can lead to a financial crisis as it has in the past. Understanding the determinants of bank lending is important as it can be used to mitigate the impact of a financial crisis in the future. The empirical results showed that international bank lending, either directly or indirectly, contributed to the Indonesian crisis. During the shock, Indonesia saw global banking contract financing. It was also found that credit activities by foreign affiliates in Indonesia saw a contraction in the country of the parent bank during the shock. However, it was found that the bank lending by foreign affiliates, as joint ventureswere more stable compared to the branch offices of a foreign bank. In aggregate, international bank lending is affected by push and pulls factors such as economic growth (in developed countries and Indonesia), risk factors, and liquidity conditions, both in Indonesia and globally. As for micro-banking models, other than the push and pull factors, the bank balance sheet and other portfolio assets also affected bank lending activities to Indonesia. Keywords: Global Financial Shocks, Foreign Affiliates, International Bank Lending, transmission path,dynamic panel.JEL Classification: C33, E51, G15

Co-Authors Ibrahim Ibrahim Linda Nurlian Linda Nurliana M. Barik Bathaluddin Meily Ika Permata Nur M. Adhi P. Tumpak Silalahi

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