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PERILAKU NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN ALTERNATIF PERHITUNGAN NILAI TUKAR RIIL KESEIMBANGAN Yati Kurniati; A.V. Hardiyanto
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 2 No 2 (1999)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Dalam dua dekade terakhir, Bank Indonesia telah melakukan beberapa kali perubahan sistem nilai tukar (exchange rate arrangement). Sebagaimana kita ketahui, sejak tahun 1978 sistem nilai tukar Indonesia bergerak semakin fleksibel dengan kisaran intervensi yang semakin diperlebar hingga akhirnya dihapuskan pada bulan Agustus 1997.Proses pelebaran kisaran intervensi secara bertahap sampai dengan dihapuskannya kisaran tersebut berpengaruh pada prilaku nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap valuta asing, khususnya mata uang mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Semakin fleksibel suatu nilai tukar akan semakin sulit memprediksi pergerakan nilai tukar. Hal ini dimungkinkan karena pergerakan nilai tukar yang berdasarkan kekuatan permintaan dan penawaran valuta asing di pasar juga dipengaruhi oleh perubahan ekspektasi pasar yang pembentukannya tergantung pada berbagai variabel ekonomi maupun non-ekonomi.

DINAMIKA INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR DAN RESPON TERHADAP SIKLUS BISNIS Yati Kurniati; Yanfitri Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 2 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The role of the manufacturing industry in the economy has expanded significantly from 19 percent in 1990 to 26 percent in 2009, while its labor absorption only increased from 10 percent to 12.2 percent. The cycle of the manufacturing industry has been in line with the economic growth. This study explores the implications of the firm-level heterogeneity over the business cycle. By using the panel multinomial logit, it shows that firms with less capital and small size have greater probability to exit the industry during the boom/ bust period. Sensitivity of the company to changes in capital is greater during the boom period. Only highly productive firms enter and begin production during recessions. Companies with higher productivity rate also have greater probability to enter the market. In contrast, higher production cost and higher market concentration increase the probability for smaller companies to exit from the industry.

LALU LINTAS MODAL DI NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN-5 : SISTEM MONITORING DAN DETERMINAN LALU LINTAS MODAL Benny Siswanto; Yati Kurniati; Harmanta Harmanta
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 3 No 1 (2000)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Arus modal masuk netto ke negara berkembang pada periode awal tahun 1990-an meningkat pesat. Dalam kurun waktu tersebut, terdapat berapa perubahan mendasar yang menarik untuk disimak, antara lain meningkatnya peranan lalu lintas modal sawasta melampaui arus modal dan semakin beragam-nya komposisi lalu lintas modal swasta. Meningkatnya minat investor ke negara berkembang terutama dipengaruhi faktor internal (antara lain perbaikan creditworthiness, peningkatan produktivitas, dan penerapan system nilai tukar “tetap” ), faktor eksternal struktural (seperti peluang diversifikasi resiko, dan kelayakan investasi di negara-negara emerging market akibat liberalisasi arus modal).

KEMUNGKINAN PENERAPAN KEBIJAKAN ARUS MODAL JANGKA PENDEK DAN DAMPAKNYA BAGI STABILITAS NILAI TUKAR Yati Kurniati
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 3 No 3 (2000)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Krisis di Asia diwarnai dengan arus modal keluar netto (net capital outflows) dalam jumlah yang sangat besar dan dalam waktu yang relatif singkat telah mendorong perhatian internasional yang lebih besar pada destabilizing effect dari arus modal jangka pendek terhadap perekonomian. Arus modal dalam bentuk pinjaman bank-bank komersial ke negara-negara kawasan Asia pada periode krisis mengalami penurunan drastic dari arus masuk bersih (net inflows) sebesar US$ 80,1 milyar tahun 1996 menjadi arus modal keluar bersih (net outflows) sebesar US$14,5 milyar pada tahun 1997 dan net outflows sebesar US$59,6 miliar pada tahun 1998. Krisis tersebut telah mendorong beberapa negara berkembang mulai meninjau kembali kebijakan-kebijakannya yang berkaitan dengan control devisa dan aliran modal (exchange and capital control) dalam rangka mengantisipasi dan meminimumkan resiko yang akan dihadapi dalam transaksi modal, khususnya arus modal jangka pendek yang diduga sebagai pemicu terjadinya kekacauan dalam sistem keuangan global. Pemberlakuan kontrol modal menjadi perdebatan di kalangan ekonom domestik dan internasional, terlebih kini IMF tengah dalam proses mempersiapkan ketentuan mengenai capital account convertability.

PERILAKU EKSPOR PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA, 1990-2000 Sahminan Sahminan; Yati Kurniati
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 2 (2009)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper examines export behaviour of manufacturing firms in Indonesia. We use firm-level data from survey of medium and large Indonesian manufacturing industries over the period 1990-2000. Using panel data regression technique, we find the following regularities. First, there is a persistency in the firm’s decision to export as well as proportion of exported output. Second, higher wage, larger number of production employment, higher productivity and higher share of foreign ownership lead to higher probability of a firm to export. Third, higher wage leads to higher proportion of exported output. However, higher productivity or higher share of foreign ownership leads to lower proportion of exported output. Fourth, while real exchange rate does not significantly affect the probability of firms to export, it significantly affects the proportion of exported output. Fifth, both probability to export and proportion of exported output was significantly much lower during the 1997/1998’s Asian crisis. Finally, looking at the export behaviour across industries, the estimation results show that there is a variation of export behavior across industries.Keywords: Export, manufacture, Indonesia.JEL Classification: F14, F13, D21

EXPORT BEHAVIOUR OF MANUFACTURING FIRMS IN INDONESIA, 1990-2000 Sahminan Sahminan; Yati Kurniati
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 2 (2009)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper examines export behaviour of manufacturing firms in Indonesia. We use firm-level data from survey of medium and large Indonesian manufacturing industries over the period 1990-2000. Using panel data regression technique, we find the following regularities. First, there is a persistency in the firm’s decision to export as well as proportion of exported output. Second, higher wage, larger number of production employment, higher productivity and higher share of foreign ownership lead to higher probability of a firm to export. Third, higher wage leads to higher proportion of exported output. However, higher productivity or higher share of foreign ownership leads to lower proportion of exported output. Fourth, while real exchange rate does not significantly affect the probability of firms to export, it significantly affects the proportion of exported output. Fifth, both probability to export and proportion of exported output was significantly much lower during the 1997/1998’s Asian crisis. Finally, looking at the export behaviour across industries, the estimation results show that there is a variation of export behavior across industries.Keywords: Export, manufacture, Indonesia.JEL Classification: F14, F13, D21

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