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FENOMENA LABOR SHIFTING DALAM PASAR TENAGA KERJA INDONESIA Meily Ika Permata; Yanfitri Yanfitri; Andry Prasmuko
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon in Indonesian labor market. Labor shifting phenomenon in developing countries, including Indonesia, is considered to be the reason of stable movement from the supply perspective. By using Sakernas data year 1998-2008, this paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon, both the direction of labor movement and the characteristics of the shifting labor.The main conclusions obtained in this research are, first, there is no structural break in Indonesian labor market. Second, although most of labors tend to remain in the same sector or intra-sector, the analysis shows there is tendency for the labor to move from non formal sectors especially to Agricultural and Trade sectors. Third, the model estimation result with a series of controlled category shows the biggest three probability of not shifting and remaining in the same sectors are in Electricity sector (70,15%), Financial sector (55,8%) and Mining sector (53,13%). On the other side, the biggest labor mobility opportunity to conduct shifting is on Industry sector (80.14%), Construction sector (64.3%), and Transportation sector (62.4%).JEL classification: J23, J62, J64Keywords: Demand for Labor, Job Mobility, Labor shifting, Unemployment

PENGARUH DINAMIKA PENAWARAN DAN PERMINTAAN VALAS Sugeng Sugeng; M. Noor Nugroho; Ibrahim Ibrahim; Yanfitri Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study examines the influence of forex demand and supply interaction on Rupiah's exchange rate. Estimation results show that the movement of rupiah is influenced by the forex supply and demand, where the foreign players are dominating. Furthermore, the demand and supply of foreign exchange is asymmetric.This paper also shows the impact of exchange rate movements on output is only in the short term with a more significant influence to the import, while the depreciation of Rupiah has a larger impact than its appreciation.Keywords:Foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E31, F31

DINAMIKA INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR DAN RESPON TERHADAP SIKLUS BISNIS Yati Kurniati; Yanfitri Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 2 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The role of the manufacturing industry in the economy has expanded significantly from 19 percent in 1990 to 26 percent in 2009, while its labor absorption only increased from 10 percent to 12.2 percent. The cycle of the manufacturing industry has been in line with the economic growth. This study explores the implications of the firm-level heterogeneity over the business cycle. By using the panel multinomial logit, it shows that firms with less capital and small size have greater probability to exit the industry during the boom/ bust period. Sensitivity of the company to changes in capital is greater during the boom period. Only highly productive firms enter and begin production during recessions. Companies with higher productivity rate also have greater probability to enter the market. In contrast, higher production cost and higher market concentration increase the probability for smaller companies to exit from the industry.

THE LABOR SHIFTING IN INDONESIAN LABOR MARKET Meily Ika Permata; Yanfitri Yanfitri; Andry Prasmuko
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon in Indonesian labor market. Labor shifting phenomenon in developing countries, including Indonesia, is considered to be the reason of stable movement from the supply perspective. By using Sakernas data year 1998-2008, this paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon, both the direction of labor movement and the characteristics of the shifting labor.The main conclusions obtained in this research are, first, there is no structural break in Indonesian labor market. Second, although most of labors tend to remain in the same sector or intra-sector, the analysis shows there is tendency for the labor to move from non formal sectors especially to Agricultural and Trade sectors. Third, the model estimation result with a series of controlled category shows the biggest three probability of not shifting and remaining in the same sectors are in Electricity sector (70,15%), Financial sector (55,8%) and Mining sector (53,13%). On the other side, the biggest labor mobility opportunity to conduct shifting is on Industry sector (80.14%), Construction sector (64.3%), and Transportation sector (62.4%).JEL classification: J23, J62, J64Keywords: Demand for Labor, Job Mobility, Labor shifting, Unemployment

EFFECTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS TO RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Sugeng Sugeng; M. Noor Nugroho; Ibrahim Ibrahim; Yanfitri Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study examines the influence of forex demand and supply interaction on Rupiah's exchange rate. Estimation results show that the movement of rupiah is influenced by the forex supply and demand, where the foreign players are dominating. Furthermore, the demand and supply of foreign exchange is asymmetric.This paper also shows the impact of exchange rate movements on output is only in the short term with a more significant influence to the import, while the depreciation of Rupiah has a larger impact than its appreciation.Keywords:Foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E31, F31

The Regional Impact Transmission via International Trade: An ASIAN-IO Approach Ibrahim Ibrahim; Tri Winarno; Melva Viva; Yanfitri Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point. Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output ModelJEL Classification : F16, R15

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