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Peramalam Garis Kemiskinan menggunakan Metode Double Moving Average di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Nugraha Rahmansyah; Shary Armonitha Lusinia; Rima Liana Gema; Silky Safira
Majalah Ilmiah UPI YPTK Vol. 28 (2021) No. 1
Publisher : Universitas Putra Indonesia YPTK Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35134/jmi.v28i1.68

Abstract

Forecasting methods can predict the values ​​of a variable based on the known value of that variable or other related variables. In the quantitative category forecasting method, especially the time series model, several smoothing methods are known, namely average and exponential smoothing. A trended series is defined as a time series that contains a long-term component that represents growth or decline in the series, and whose average value changes up or down over a period of time. The average method is that a number of values ​​that are given an equivalent weight (or smoothed) are included in the calculation of the average. A double moving average, also known as a linear moving average, is designed for time series data with a trending pattern or a linear trend. The time series data used is poverty line data by area of ​​residence in West Sumatra based on the ability to meet basic needs (basic needs approach). With this approach, poverty is seen as an economic inability to meet basic food and non-food needs as measured from the expenditure side. So the poor are people who have an average monthly per capita expenditure below the poverty line. So that the double moving average time series method is used. This study aims to determine the monthly per capita public expenditure forecast in West Sumatra.
The Analysis of the Determination of the Funding Bpbd Perdaerah using the Method of Mfep in West Sumatra Nugraha Rahmansyah; Shary Armonitha Lusinia
Jurnal KomtekInfo Vol. 6 No. 2 (2019): Komtekinfo
Publisher : Universitas Putra Indonesia YPTK Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (136.02 KB) | DOI: 10.35134/komtekinfo.v6i2.59

Abstract

A natural disaster is a disaster caused by event or series of events caused by nature, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and landslides. In this case the action of handling and natural disaster management is the responsibility of the central government and local government. Data budget or funding indicative SKPD BPBD West Sumatra that has been composed must be as effective as possible in its distribution. With the use of information and communication technology can help in penentuaan funding in each area. This study analyzes the natural disasters that occurred in each region in West Sumatra to determine funding in tackling natural disasters. In this case, day this provide a solution to existing problems by creating a decision support system methods of Multifactor Evaluation Process (MFEP).
Analysis of the Level of Vulnerability to Floods using the Method of Simple Moving Average (A Case Study of the City of Padang) Shary Lusinia; Nugraha Rahmansyah
Jurnal KomtekInfo Vol. 7 No. 3 (2020): Komtekinfo
Publisher : Universitas Putra Indonesia YPTK Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (566.781 KB) | DOI: 10.35134/komtekinfo.v7i3.84

Abstract

Flood is the overflow of the river flow due to water exceed the storage capacity of the river, so that overflow and inundate the plains or the lower regions in the vicinity. Floods are natural disasters that often occur in Indonesia because it is located in the tropics. A lot of flood prone areas which have high population density, due to less understanding of the community regarding the geographic region. Floods often occur in the City of Padang caused by high rainfall in the upstream areas of the river and the topography is hilly so increase the speed of the flow of water to the lower plains. In this study, the author examines the factors of vulnerability to flood by using the method of Simple Moving Average with a parameter of the flood that used rainfall and long rainy days.
PREDICTION ANALYSIS OF DIVORCE RATE USING THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM METHOD Shary Armonitha; Nugraha Rahmansyah
Jurnal Ipteks Terapan (Research Of Applied Science And Education ) Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): Jurnal Ipteks Terapan (Research Of Applied Science And Education)
Publisher : Lembaga Layanan Pendidikan Tinggi Wilayah X

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (851.246 KB) | DOI: 10.22216/jit.v%vi%i.776

Abstract

The existence of divorce actually results in the separation of husband and wife bonds. This study aims to examine and examine the influence of divorce factors in the city of Padang. In this problem, the author predicts the divorce rate that will occur in the city of Padang in 2021 by reviewing divorce data in 2020. The method used in this study is normative juridical research by conducting observations, field notes, and interviews with related parties at the research location. . The results of this study will provide benefits for the Padang Class IA Religious Court to make a breakthrough that is able to reduce the divorce rate. The analysis in this problem also uses two methods of decision support systems, namely Single Moving Average (SMA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on manual calculations, the researcher can conclude that continuous disputes in the household can trigger divorce. Therefore, the Padang Class IA Religious Court can make a breakthrough in the form of education about the impact of divorce and education in solving a problem. The application of the Single Moving Average method can predict accurately for January 2021 as many as 96 cases for 5 period predictions with a MAPE of 11%. In the calculation of the Analytical Hierarchy Process method, the final calculation is 0.32 which shows that continuous disputes can lead to divorce.
Analisa Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Kemiskinan Menurut Kabupaten Kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat Nugraha Rahmansyah; Shary Armonitha Lusinia
Jurnal Karya Ilmiah Multidisiplin (JURKIM) Vol. 2 No. 1 (2022): Jurnal Karya Ilmiah Multidisiplin (Jurkim)
Publisher : Universitas Lancang Kuning

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (325.608 KB) | DOI: 10.31849/jurkim.v2i1.9195

Abstract

Kemiskinan adalah ketidakmampuan untuk memenuhi standar minimum kebutuhan dasar yang meliputi kebutuhan makanan maupun non-makanan. Untuk mengukur kemiskinan, BPS menggunakan konsep kemampuan memenuhi kebutuhan dasar (basic needs approach). Dengan pendekatan ini, kemiskinan dipandang sebagai ketidakmampuan ekonomi untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dasar makanan dan bukan makanan yang diukur dari sisi pengeluaran. Jadi orang miskin adalah orang yang memiliki rata-rata pengeluaran perkapita bulanan di bawah garis kemiskinan. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, penelitian ini dilakukan untuk lebih menganalisa kemiskin berdasarkan kondisi pengeluaran perkapita, jumlah penduduk, angka melek huruf (AHM), dan umur harapan hidup (UHH) masyakat sehingga kita dapat mengetahui kondisi rill daerah mana yang memiliki jumlah penduduk miskin terbanyak. Hasil dari penelitian ini akan memberikan manfaat kepada pihak terkait, baik pemerintah ataupun pihak swasta untuk merencanakan peningkatan perekonomian masyarakat demi mengurangi jumlah penduduk miskin di suatu daerah yang ada di Sumater Barat. Analisa terhadap permasalahan ini menggunakan konsep Sistem Pendukung Keputusan dengan metode Simple Additive Weight