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All Journal Journal of Computer System and Informatics (JoSYC)
Nur Arminarahmah
Universitas Islam Kalimantan Muhammad Arsyad Al Banjari, Banjarmasin
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

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Penerapan ML dengan Teknik Bayesian Regulation untuk Peramalan Usia Penduduk di Beberapa Negara Asia Ratih Puspadini; Anjar Wanto; Nur Arminarahmah
Journal of Computer System and Informatics (JoSYC) Vol 3 No 3 (2022): May 2022
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josyc.v3i3.1692

Abstract

Knowing the age of life of the population in a country is useful for evaluating the performance of the government, whether the government is able to prosper the population in general, and improve health status in particular. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the age of the population in several major countries in Asia, so that the government has a benchmark in determining policies to further improve the welfare and health of the population in their respective countries. The forecasting method in this paper will use Machine learning algorithms with Bayesian Regulation techniques. The research data used is data on population expectations in several Asian countries sourced from the United Nations: "World Population Prospect: The 2010 Revision Population Database". This research is a development of research that has been done before, using the Cyclical order technique. Previous research used 5 architectural models (3-5-1, 3-8-1, 3-10-1, 3-5-8-1 and 3-5-10-1), with the best model being 3-5-10 -1 which results in an accuracy of 97%, MSE 0.0008358919, training time of 27 seconds and an error rate of 0.03. Meanwhile, this research only uses 3 modified architectural models (2-5-1, 2-10-1 and 2-5-10-1), with the best model being 2-5-1. The result is that this study is better than previous studies. The benchmark is seen from a smaller error rate (0.02), better accuracy (100%), to a faster training time (5 seconds). So it can be concluded, Bayesian Regulation technique works better than Cyclical order and the 2-5-1 architectural model will be used to make predictions
Co-Authors Ratih Puspadini Wanto, Anjar