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Machine learning deployment for arms dynamics pattern recognition in Southeast Asia region Zul Indra; Azhari Setiawan; Yessi Jusman; Arisman Adnan
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 23, No 3: September 2021
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v23.i3.pp1654-1662

Abstract

Finding the most significant determinant variable of arms dynamic is highly required due to strategic policies formulations and power mapping for academics and policy makers. Machine learning is still new or underdiscussed among the study of politics and international relations. Existing literature have much focus on using advanced quantitative methods by applying various types of regression analysis. This study analyzed the arms dynamic in Southeast Asia countries along with its some strategic partners such as United States, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan by using ‘Decision Tree’ of machine learning algorithm. This study conducted a machine learning analysis on 55 variable items which is classified into 8 classes of variables videlicet defense budget, arms trade exports, arms trade imports, political posture, economic posture, security posture and defense priority, national capability, and direct contact,. The results suggest three findings: (1) state who perceives maritime as strategic drivers and forces will seek more power for its maritime defense posture which is translated to defense budget, (2) big size countries tend to be an arms exporter country, and (3) state’s energy dependence often leads to a higher volume of arms transfers between countries.
ASEAN ‘Political-Security’ Community: Mekanisme Kerjasama Multilateral dan Mutual Legal Assistance dalam Menangani Kasus Money Laundering di Asia Tenggara Setiawan, Azhari
Integritas : Jurnal Antikorupsi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2016): INTEGRITAS Volume 02 Nomor 1 Tahun 2016
Publisher : Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (258.118 KB) | DOI: 10.32697/integritas.v2i1.125

Abstract

Ketika berbicara mengenai cara menangani kasus korupsi, kolusi, dan nepotisme di Indonesia, tersedia ratusan bahkan ribuan solusi yang telah disalurkan melalui produk hukum, akademis, ataupun wacana-wacana strategis. Namun, kuantitas solusi ini ternyata berbanding lurus dengan kuantitas varian mekanisme tindak korupsi itu sendiri. Salah satu yang menjadi problematika dan dilema bagi Indonesia adalah penyamaran dan/atau penyembunyian harta hasil korupsi lewat mekanisme Money Laundering. Money Laundering yang berada di dalam negeri dinilai masih memiliki kemungkinan untuk diberantas, namun Indonesia akan mengalami kesulitan yang lebih besar jika uang hasil tindak korupsi “dicuci” di luar negeri. Kesulitan ini akan semakin bertambah ketika negara asing yang dijadikan sebagai tempat pencucian—dan/atau tempat pelarian—tidak memiliki perjanjian kerjasama keamanan—seperti unifikasi regulasi, kerjasama kepolisian dan ekstradisi—dengan Indonesia. Solusi yang ditawarkan dalam tulisan ini adalah pemanfaatan ASEAN ‘Political-security’ Community sebagai pintu masuk bagi Indonesia untuk membangun jaringan kerjasama keamanan dengan negara-negara ASEAN yang menjadi tempat pelarian favorit—salah satu contohnya ialah Singapura—bagi pelaku korupsi dan MoneyLaunderingdi Indonesia. Tulisan ini secara teoritis, disusun melalui pendekatan hukum, ekonomi, dan politik yang disusun dalam kerangka disiplin Ilmu Hubungan Internasional. Selain sebagai pintu masuk bagi Indonesia untuk membuka akses, Kerjasama Internasional sebagai mekanisme pemberantasan korupsi dan Money Laundering di ASEAN pada umumnya, dan Indonesia pada khususnya, dapat menjadi solusi strategis bagi Indonesia dalam menyukseskan dan membuka peluang untuk memimpin pilar ASEAN ‘Political-security’ Community. Menangani korupsi sekaligus menciptakan peluang untuk memimpin pilar politik-keamanan di ASEAN Community dapat menjadi “sekali dayung, dua tiga pulau terlampaui” bagi Indonesia.
Diplomatic Dilemma dan Standar Ganda Politik Amerika Serikat Terhadap Konflik Sipil-Militer Mesir Tahun 2013 Setiawan, Azhari
Jurnal Hubungan Internasional Vol 4, No 1 (2015): April
Publisher : Jurnal Hubungan Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/hi.2015.0067.67-77

Abstract

United States of America as the main actor—in many cases—of world politics constellation has done a number of double standard politics for preserving its certain national interest. For a century, Middle East has been one of the most focussed object for United States foreign policies. This research is aimed to explain United States diplomatic dilemma and double standard politics toward Egypt civil-military conflict and Morsi coup in 2013, which tries to answer why United States used double standard politics on Egypt case. United States never calls Egypt case as a coup and still continuing its foreign aid to Egypt’s new governement (military government). Researcher has formulated an answered-hypothesis which reveals the facts that United States double standard is caused by United States diplomatic dilemma. These diplomatic dilemmas also influenced by United States pragmatism on its Arab Spring foreign policy.
Peran Global Qurban Aksi Cepat Tanggap Indonesia dalam Menyalurkan Bantuan Kemanusiaan Transnasional Azhari Setiawan; Andhik Beni Saputra; Herry Wahyudi
T JDP (JURNAL DINAMIKA PEMERINTAHAN) Vol 3 No 1 (2020): Januari 2020
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Abdurrab

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (990.5 KB) | DOI: 10.36341/jdp.v3i1.1178

Abstract

The research explores how the role of Aksi Cepat Tanggap (ACT) Indonesia and Global Qurban as one of its flagship programs at the global level. ACT is a professional non-profit organization that focuses on humanitarian work due to natural disasters and humanitarian conflicts. ACT's working area on a global scale begins with gait in every humanitarian tragedy in various parts of the world such as natural disasters, hunger and drought, conflict and war, including the suppression of minority groups of various countries. This study applies qualitative approach. This type of research is classified into Phenomenological research which seeks meaning from a social reality from a human point of view within it—Aksi Cepat Tanggap. This study applies six conceptual approaches on exploring the research findings on Global Qurban Aksi Cepat Tanggap from the point of view of (i) social movements, (ii) the international society, (iii) development, regimes and policies, (iv) socioeconomics, (v) the use of social media, and the perspectives of (vi) transnational advocacy networks. The results of this study indicate that humanitarian assistance—and also humanitarian issues—is still being major trends in the dynamics of transnational organizations discourses. In addition, the use of social media is considered necessary to determine the development and progress of a transnational advocacy network.
OPERASI KONTRA TEROR KOALISI GLOBAL DALAM MENGHADAPI PERGERAKAN ISLAMIC STATES OF IRAQ AND SYIRIA (ISIS) Azhari Setiawan; Alfajri Alfajri
T JDP (JURNAL DINAMIKA PEMERINTAHAN) Vol 1 No 2 (2018): Agustus 2018
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Abdurrab

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (679.962 KB)

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study reveals the movement of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from two perspectives that are essentially contradictory. These two points of view are related to the relationship between the distribution of capabilities between actors in the Middle East and ISIS movements. The first point of view sees that ISIS is a consequence of the distribution of capability of actors in the Middle East, while the second point of view sees that ISIS is a determinant of the distribution of capabilities in the Middle East. There are two main arguments to see the relationship between the distribution of actor capabilities in the current international system and the emergence and development of ISIS. First, the distribution of capability of actors in the international system (Middle East) caused ISIS to be borned and developed. Second, on the contrary, the movement and development of ISIS in the Middle East influenced the distribution of capability of related actors in the international system (Middle East and surrounding areas). The first thesis emphasizes that the distribution of capabilities and conditions of the international system in the Middle East triggered/motivated the birth of ISIS. In this case ISIS becomes dependent variable. Then, the second thesis emphasizes the influence of ISIS on the conditions of the international system. It means that, it is ISIS movement that influenced the distribution of capabilities among actors in the international system. The distribution of US power that decided to enter the Middle East [starting from the participation of the United States in the Gulf War, the invasion of Iraq, the Arab Spring, etc.] triggered the birth of protest movements which led to the Asymmetric War against terrorism. The participation of other major countries in the Middle East conflict contributed to the situation in the Middle East. The distribution of power in Iraq and Syria greatly affected the birth of ISIS. Keywords: ISIS, Arab Spring, United States of America, Power Distribution ABSTRAK Penelitian menjelaskan gerakan Islamic State of Iraq and Syiria (ISIS) dari dua perspektif yang berbeda. Kedua perspektif tersebut berkaitan dengan distribusi kapabilitas antara berbagai aktor di Timur Tengah dan ISIS. Perspektif pertama melihat bahwa ISIS merupakan konsekuensi dari distribusi kapabilitas aktor di Timur Tengah, sementara perspektif kedua melihat bahwa ISIS merupakan determinan distribusi kapabilitas tersebut. Terdapat dua argumen untuk melihat hubungan antara distribusi kapabilitas aktor dalam sistem internasional kontemporer dan kemunculan sekaligus perkembangan ISIS. Pertama, distribusi kapabilitas aktor sistem internasional pada tingkat kawasan Timur Tengah menjadi penyebab kemunculan dan perkembangan ISIS. Kedua, pergerakan dan perkembangan ISIS di Timur Tengah dipengaruhi oleh oleh distribusi kapabilitas aktor-aktor terkait dalam sistem internasional di Timur Tengah dan kawasan sekitarnya. Argumen pertama menekankan bahwa distribusi kapabilitas dan kondisi sistem internasional di Timur Tengah menjadi penyebab kemunculan ISIS. Dalam hal ini ISIS menjadi variabel dependen. Argumen kedua menekankan pengaruh ISIS terhadap kondisi kapabilitas antar aktor dalam sistem internasional. Hal ini menunjukan bahwa ISIS lah yang mempengaruhi kapabilitas antar aktor dalam sistem internasional tersebut. Distribusi kekuatan Amerika Serikat yang memutuskan untuk mencampuri permasalahan di Timur Tengah [mulai dari keterlibatan Amerika dalam Perang Teluk, invansi ke Irak, Arab Spring, dan lain-lain] memicu lahirnya gerakan protes yang mengarah pada perang asimetris melawan terorisme. Keterlibatan negara lain dalam konflik Timur Tengah juga turut memberikan kontribusi terhadap situasi Timur Tengah saat ini. Distribusi kekuatan aktor di Irak dan Suriah yang pada akhirnya mendorong kelahiran ISIS. Kata kunci: ISIS, Arab Spring, Amerika Serikat, distribusi kekuatan
Syed Abul Hasan Ali Hasani an-Nadwi Tentang Keruntuhan Peradaban, Pandangan Hidup, dan Pendidikan Islam Azhari Setiawan
Tasfiyah: Jurnal Pemikiran Islam Vol 1, No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Darussalam Gontor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (601.685 KB) | DOI: 10.21111/tasfiyah.v1i2.1854

Abstract

This article aims to explore Syed Hasan Ali Nadwi’s views on the decline of civilization and the notion of Islamic worldview. First, the author describes about Syed Hasan Ali Nadwi’s life in a short bio. Second, the author explores Syed Hasan Ali Nadwi’s views and thoughts about the essence beyond the civilizations, its glory and decadence. Then I will elaborate Syed Hasan Ali Nadwi’s point of view about the worldview of Islam, what are the substances of an Islamic worldview and how far the worldview could bring civilizations to certain glories and decadence. My point of view on this article is the stronger worldview that Muslims have, the stronger civilization Muslims could establish. It all depend on how Muslims face the crisis of knowledge and the loss of adab by the right ‘knowledge’, right ‘choice’, and right ‘action.’
Diplomatic Dilemma dan Standar Ganda Politik Amerika Serikat Terhadap Konflik Sipil-Militer Mesir Tahun 2013 Setiawan, Azhari
Jurnal Hubungan Internasional Vol 4, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/hi.2015.0067.67-77

Abstract

United States of America as the main actor—in many cases—of world politics constellation has done a number of double standard politics for preserving its certain national interest. For a century, Middle East has been one of the most focussed object for United States foreign policies. This research is aimed to explain United States diplomatic dilemma and double standard politics toward Egypt civil-military conflict and Morsi coup in 2013, which tries to answer why United States used double standard politics on Egypt case. United States never calls Egypt case as a coup and still continuing its foreign aid to Egypt’s new governement (military government). Researcher has formulated an answered-hypothesis which reveals the facts that United States double standard is caused by United States diplomatic dilemma. These diplomatic dilemmas also influenced by United States pragmatism on its Arab Spring foreign policy.
Explaining the Effects of Political Islam and Preacher toward Prabowo’s Electoral Dominance: Evidence from Pekanbaru and Kampar Andhik Beni Saputra; Azhari Setiawan; Hesti Herpina
Jurnal Politik Vol 7, No 1 (2021): Brokerage in Indonesian Politics
Publisher : Department of Political Science Universitas Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.7454/jp.v7i1.387

Abstract

Ulama in Indonesia have critical roles not only in religious teachings but also in socio-political affairs. The literature on voter behavior in many countries shows that religious leaders have critical roles in directing the political orientation and behavior of their followers. This article aims to examine the influence of Ustadz Abdul Somad (UAS) toward a significant increase of Prabowo's vote share in the 2019 presidential election in Riau Province. Although Prabowo lost to Jokowi with a large margin in the last election, he was able to claim electoral victory in 13 out of 34 provinces—one of them is Riau. We assume that Prabowo gained the electoral advantage over his rival in Riau due to electoral support from UAS that ultimately gave significant effect toward a sharp increase for his votes compared to the 2014 election. We apply the quantitative method to examine the phenomenon. The data are mainly collected through a survey conducted in the two most populous regions in Riau—Pekanbaru and Kampar Regency. Our study confirms that UAS has a significant effect on Muslim voters' orientation and behavior to vote for Prabowo in the last presidential election. Other findings in this study are also in line with previous studies suggesting a critical influence of religion, particularly Islam, in driving Muslim’s political behavior. The contribution of our study is to enrich the literature on voter behavior in Indonesian politics by examining the influence of political support from a popular preacher—UAS—on the distribution of electoral support for presidential candidates in the 2019 election. This is further strengthened by the presence and role of ulama figures who give their support to each presidential candidate in the political contestation in 2019.
Gender-Equality Concerns and Political Attitudes toward Women in the 2019 Legislative Election: Evidence from Pelalawan Andhik Beni Saputra; Azhari Setiawan; Citra Puspita Febriani
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik Vol 24, No 3 (2021): March
Publisher : Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jsp.53324

Abstract

The presence of women in Indonesian politics remains underrepresented whereas cultural and societal aspects pose critical influence in determining voter behavior toward female candidates. The aim of this article is to examine voter behavior regarding female candidates and the probability for them to be elected as members of parliament. We apply quantitative method by developing three models representing three combinations of predictor variables, (i) socio-demography, (ii) gender- equality concern, and (iii) political attitude towards female candidates as determinants towards female candidate electability. The study took place in Pelalawan Regency in Riau Province, by analyzing 400 respondents with equal numbers of men and women from various socio-economic backgrounds through clustered random sampling method. We tested these hypotheses and our three models by utilizing logistic regression analysis. The result shows that political attitude toward female candidates (Model 3) are the strongest coefficient and most significant determinant for female candidate electability. The study also revealed that female candidate’s electability in Pelalawan Regency is lower than male candidate’s electability among male respondents. On the other hand, female candidate’s electability is higher than male candidate’s electability among female respondents. Moreover, we also found that education determines female candidate’s electability where the more educated an individual is, the more he/she tends to vote for female candidates.
Sinergitas Pembangunan Tata Ruang Pertahanan Daerah dalam Menghadapi Ancaman Non-Militer di Indonesia Alfajri Alfajri; Azhari Setiawan; Herry Wahyudi
Global Strategis Vol. 13 No. 1 (2019): Global Strategis
Publisher : Departemen Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Unair

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (363.722 KB) | DOI: 10.20473/jgs.13.1.2019.103-122

Abstract

This article aims to understand and explain the local context of state’s defense toward non-military threats in Indonesia. As the broading and deepening development of security significance, non-traditional security agenda urges multi-levels and multi-sectors synergy especially in the local government because the nature of non-military threats in Indonesia developed at the local level. First, authors review numbers of literatures about non-traditional security, non-military threats and the securitization theory. Second, the article elaborates the strategic environment—global, regional, and national—and threats perception from the perspective of Indonesia’s defense posture. After that, the article explains securitization aspects of multi-level and multi-sectors synergy on facing the non-military threats at the local level. The result of this research is the synergy of national development, regional development and national defense development needs to be synchronized with the support of clear regulations, considering the available resources to achieve real community welfare, both in terms of income, employment opportunities, business opportunities, access to policy making, competitiveness, and an increase in the human development index. The strategic relations between stakeholders in the synergy of national defense development is essential to achieve formidable defense. Policy socialization between vertical agencies of ministries/institutions and regional governments needs to be optimized and intensified so that there will be a common perception in the management and implementation of national defense development on dealing with non-military threats.