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Optimasi Pola Operasi Waduk Untuk Memenuhi Kebutuhan Energi Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (Studi Kasus Waduk Wonogiri) Samosir, Cahaya Santoso; Soetopo, Widandi; Yuliani, Emma
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 6, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

The reservoir is expected to utilize water into the source of energy using hidroelectric power plants. Unfortunately, there is reduction of its function time by time because of sedimentation problem at the bottom of Wonogiri reservoir. Because of this problem, there are urgent needs of good management, planning, and operation to optimize the Wonogiri function again. One of the effective methods is the application of stochastic operational simulation rule of reservoir assisted with solver evolutionary program. Based on analysis result, the application of optimization operational simulation rule using stochastic model had better electric production than existing operational simulation rule. There was the increase of electric production as much as 22.98% (77.733 MWh/15days) from 33,820 MWh/15days to 41,593 MWh/15days. The performance evaluation showed that the reservoir had a 100% reliability to produce electricity and 80% to fulfill water demand in downstream area.Keywords: Wonogiri reservoir, reservoir operation rule, simulation, stochastic model, reservoir evaluation
Model-Model Pembangkitan Data Sintetis Untuk Curah Hujan Harian Di Wilayah Brantas Tengah Soetopo, Widandi; Limantara, Lily Montarcih; Sayekti, Rini Wahyu; Purwati, Endang; Chandrasasi, Dian; Ilham, Muhammad; Rahmadi, Agung
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 4, No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This research is for finding the suitable the synthetic data generating model for daily rainfall in the region of Middle Brantas River Basin in the East Java Province. There are 7 models being considered, 4 models for single-site generation, (1) the two-part, model group, (2) the transition probability matrix model group, (3) the resampling model group, and (4) the time series model group, and 3 models for multisite generation, (5) the conditional, model group, (6) the extension of single site Markov chain model group, and (7) the random cascade model group. All of the time-series produced by the daily rainfall synthetic data generation are then tested statistically. The results show that statistically the differences between the historical time series and the synthetically time series are not too significant. It turn out that the multisite model have produced better synthetic time series compared to those which have been produced by the single-site models.Keywords: generating model, synthetic data, daily rainfall.
ANALISIS PARAMETER ALFA HIDROGRAF SATUAN SINTETIK NAKAYASU DI SUB DAS LESTI Dewi, Rosmala; Limantara, Lilly Montarcih; Soetopo, Widandi
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 7, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Abstrak : Hidrograf satuan sintetik merupakan hidrograf yang didasarkan atas sintetis dari parameter-parameter daerah aliran sungai.  Salah satu hidrograf satuan sintetik yang dapat digunakan adalah hidrograf Nakayasu. Terdapat paramete α (alfa) pada hidograf satuan sintetik Nakayasu. Nilai α (alfa) menunjukkan karakteristik DAS. Nilai α terpilih yang sesuai dengan hasil kalibrasi antara Nakayasu dan Hidrograf Collins adalah 2,777. Kesalahan relatif antara HSS Nakayasu dan Hidrograf Pengamatan Metode Collins untuk nilai QP adalah 0,33%. Rerata nilai Mean abolute Error (MAE) antara Nakayasu dan Metode Collins adalah sebesar 0,782 . Hasil kalibrasi antara debit banjir rancangan pengamatan (Qpengamatan) dengan debit banjir rancangan model (Qmodel) memiliki tingkat korelasi yang sangat baik yaitu R = 0,99 dan nilai kesalahan relatif sebesar 4%.Kata Kunci : Hidrograf satuan, parameter alfa, kesalahan relatif, korelasi. Abstract :  Synthetic unit hydrograph based on synthetic parameters of the watershed. One of the synthetic unit hydrograph that can be used is Nakayasu. There is α (alpha) parameters on Nakayasu. The value of α (alpha) indicates the characteristics of the watershed. The chosen of α value for Nakayasu and Collins method is 2,777. The relative error of discharge between Nakayasu and Collins for QP is  0,33%. The avverage of mean absolute error between Nakayasu and is 0,782. Calibration results between observational design flood discharge  with the design flood discharge model  has  very good level of correlation, R = 0.99 and the relative error is 4%..Keyword : Unit hydrograph, alpha parameters, relative error, correlation.
Pengaruh Panjang Dan Lebar Data Debit Historis Pada Kinerja Model Pembangkitan Data Debit Sungai Brantas Dengan Metode ARIMA Efendi, Maskur; Soetopo, Widandi; Juwono, Pitojo Tri
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 7, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Abstrak :  Model ARIMA adalah metode analisis deret waktu yang memiliki tingkat akurasi peramalan yang cukup tinggi, cocok digunakan untuk meramal sejumlah variabel dengan cepat, sederhana dan akurat. Banyak model stokastik tidak memberikan acuan berapa panjang data historis minimal yang dibutuhkan. Panjang data historis minimal perlu ditetapkan sebagai masukan untuk menggambarkan fenomena hidrologi yang terjadi. Penelitian menggunakan data debit dari 3 (tiga) stasiun AWLR yang mewakili masing-masing sub DAS di DAS Brantas. Panjang data historis representatif dengan nilai kesalahan relatif 5% untuk pembangkitan data debit menggunakan model ARIMA untuk stasiun AWLR Gadang adalah 15 tahun untuk lebar data 10 harian, 17 tahun untuk lebar data 15 harian dan 11 tahun untuk lebar data 1 bulanan. Untuk stasiun AWLR Kertosono, panjang data historis representatif adalah 8 tahun untuk lebar data 10 harian, 5 tahun untuk lebar data 15 harian dan 14 tahun untuk lebar data 1 bulanan. Untuk stasiun AWLR Lengkong Baru, panjang data historis representatif adalah 6 tahun untuk lebar data 10 harian, 6 tahun untuk lebar data 15 harian dan 14 tahun untuk lebar data 1 bulanan.Kata kunci: Model ARIMA, panjang data historis, lebar data, debit sungai, DAS Brantas Abstract : ARIMA model is a method of time series analysis which has quite high level forecasting accuracy, suitable to predict the number of variables in quickly, simply and accurately. Many stochastic models do not provide a reference of minimum length of historical data that need to be set as an input to describe the hydrology phenomenon. The study used discharge data from three (3) AWLR stations representing each sub-watershed in Brantas watershed. Representative historical data length with 5% relative error for the generation of discharge data using ARIMA models are: (a) at Gadang AWLR station is 15 years with 10 daily width of data, 17 years with 15 daily width of data and 11 years with monthly width of data. (b) At Kertosono AWLR station is 8 years with 10 daily width of data, 5 years with the 15 daily width of data and 14 years with the monthly width of data. (c) At Lengkong Baru AWLR stations is 6 years with 10 daily width of data, 6 years with the 15 daily width of data and 14 years with monthly width of dataKeywords: ARIMA models, historical data length, width of data, river discharge, Brantas watershed.
Pemodelan Debit Menggunakan Metode Arima Guna Menentukan Pola Operasi Waduk Selorejo Pramujo, Bambang; Juwono, Pitojo Tri; Soetopo, Widandi
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 5, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Selorejo dam is located in the village of Pandansari, Ngantang Sub Regency, Malang Regency. It is located in Kali Konto, a tributary of the Brantas River. Selorejo dam has a very important function, especially for the purposes of hydroelectric power generation and irrigation. As an old dam, completed in 1970, Selorejo experiences a decreasing volume of its reservoir due to a high sedimentation rate. The decreasing volume Selorejo reservoir has impacted the function of the dam and it is important to formulate a better operating rule to optimalize the current volume. During the planning of the operating rule of Selorejo reservoir, Perum Jasa Tirta I as an operator of the Selorejo Dam use a dependable discharge in predicting inflow discharge. This study predict the inflow discharge using ARIMA forecasting method, which then used to formulate a new operating rule. This study used 10 years of 10 days period inflow discharge data, which 9 years of it used to generating the ARIMA model and the last 1-year data for calibration. The study result suggest that the best ARIMA model in predicting the dam’s inflow discharge is ARIMA (1,1,1)(2,1,1) 36. Compare to a current method, this model is proved predicts better inflow discharge which has smaller Relative Error (KR) to the real data (Model’s KR 5.5 and Operator’s KR 17.8).Keywords: ARIMA, inflow discharge, the operating rule of reservoir, reservoir of Selorejo Dam.
Penerapan Model Sinus-Perkalian pada Alokasi Spasial Air Irigasi dengan Optimasi Program Dinamik Soetopo, Widandi
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 1, No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Apabila pada bangunan sadap di sungai tidak tersedia kapasitas tampungan waduk, maka masalah optimasinya menjadi hanya model alokasi air irigasi secara spasial antar petak-petak irigasi.Masalah utamanya sekarang adalah bagaimana untuk suatu musim tanam tertentu membuat tabel akibat untuk masing-masing petak irigasi agar dapat digunakannya model optimasi Program Dinamik. Dalam penelitian ini, digunakan model Sinus-Perkalian sebagai Fungsi Produksi Tanaman Irigasi untuk menghitung nilai-nilai di tabel akibat. Beberapa asumsi dilakukan untuk memungkinkan dilakukannya perhitungan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa model Sinus-Perkalian dengan model optimasi Program Dinamik sudah cukup memuaskan untuk menyelesaikan optimasi alokasi secara spasial.Kata kunci: model sinus-perkalian, program dinamik, alokasi spasial.
PERBANDINGAN ANTARA MODEL ATURAN LEPASAN BERDASARKAN TAMPUNGAN DAN MODEL RULE CURVE UNTUK WADUK PENGGA soetopo, widandi; Limantara, Lily Montarcih; Suhardjono, Suhardjono; Andawayanti, Ussy; Lufira, Rahmah Dara; Huda, Qomarul; Anwar, Syamsul
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 6, No 2 (2015)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Abstrak : Penelitian ini untuk membandingkan an­ta­ra 2 alternatif aturan operasi waduk Pengga dalam mengatur debit lepasan guna memenuhi kebutuhan sepanjang tahun.  Waduk Pengga beroperasi dengan periode ½ bulanan.  Ada 2 alternatif yang disarankan untuk waduk Pengga, yaitu (1) aturan lepasan yang berdasarkan status tampungan waduk pada awal periode operasi, dan (2) rule curve sebagai batas bawah tampungan wa­duk pada setiap periode operasi.  A­tur­an operasi lepasan waduk dari masing-masing alternatif di­op­timasi untuk me­ning­kat­kan kinerjanya sampai mencapai batas maksimum, lalu dilakukan perbandingan antara kedua alternatif tersebut.  Sebelum dilakukan optimasi, dilakukan revisi terhadap struktur daripada ma­sing-masing aturan operasi untuk meningkatkan potensi perbaikan kinerja da­lam optimasi.  Pada aturan lepasan berdasarkan tampungan, revisi struktur di­pu­sat­kan pada peningkatan jumlah grid tampungan, sementara juga dicoba alternatif bentuk garis lepasan yang kontinyu disamping bentuk diskrit.  Sedangkan pada rule curve, re­vi­si struktur dipusatkan pada penambahan kurva-kurva sebagai batas bawah pelepasan bertingkat.  Untuk melakukan optimasi di­gu­nakan prosedur Evolutionary Solver yang ada pa­da perangkat Add-Ins Solver dari MS-Excel 2010.Kata kunci: aturan lepasan, status tampungan, rule curve. Abstract : This research is the comparison of two alternatives of operating rule of the Pengga Reservoir for regulating the releases to fulfill the annual water demand.  The Pengga Reservoir operate in half-month periods.  Two alternatives being proposed for the release operating rule of Pengga Reservoir, (1) the release rule based on the reservoir storage state at the beginning of operating period, and (2) the Rule Curve as the lower boundary of reservoir storage at every operating period.  The reservoir release operating rule of each alternative is optimized to improve its performance until attain the maximum limit, then the comparison is conducted between the two alternatives.  Before the optimization, structural revisions are done on each operating rule to enhance the potency of performance improvement in the optimization.  In the Release Rule based on storage, the revisions are focused on the expansion of number of storage grid, beside also the  trial shape of continuous release line instead of discrete.  As for the Rule Curve, the revisions are focused on the additional curves as the lower bounds of stepped release.  The undertaking of this optimization study will use the Evolutionary Solver procedure in Add-Ins Solver package of the MS-Excel 2010.Keywords: release rule, storage state, rule curve.
Upaya Konservasi Waduk Selorejo Berdasarkan Perkembangan Peta Penggunaan Lahan Dalam Kurun Waktu Tahun 2000–2011 Yudiarso, Rendra Arif; Suhartanto, Ery; Soetopo, Widandi
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan Vol 5, No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Jurusan Teknik Pengairan, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Selorejo Reservoir is managed by the Perum Jasatirta I. Selorejo reservoir was planned for 50 years in effective usage. By the end year of 2010 this reservoir has been operated for 38 years. This study was conducted to determine the amount of sediment inflow into the reservoir, how many year the effective usage of Selorejo reservoir is still remain, and the conservation efforts are made to maintain the effective usage of the reservoir. The Estimation of erosion rates is calculated by the AVSWAT 2000’s model approach and calculate the Reservoir’s effective by the Linsley empirical equation. With the Brunne efficiency trap method obtained the rest of reservoir effective usage is about 10.99 years ( from 12 years rest of the Reservoir effective usage). Another empirical approach with the Churchill efficiency trap method obtained the rest of reservoir effective usage is about 17.66 years. Based on the Brunne efficiency trap method calculation, the Reservoir effective usage can not reached. short-term Reservoir conservation effort can reduce the sediment about 85.55 % each year with 5.05 billion in cost, the medium term can reduce the sediment about 4:03 % each year with 12.2 billion in implementation and OM cost, and the long-term can reduce the sediment 63.9 % each year. Based on the percentage of sediment reduction, the budget plan costs, and the direct benefits that can be perceived, so the short-term alternative can be used as the priority for reservoir management.Keywords: AVSWAT 2000, Reservoir’s effective time, Conservation.
Analisa Neraca Air Permukaan Das Renggung Untuk Memenuhi Kebutuhan Air Irigasi Dan Domestik Penduduk Kabupaten Lombok Tengah Zulkipli, Zulkipli; Soetopo, Widandi; Prasetijo, Hari
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 3, No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Research attempts to understand the potential and demand of water and the water balance, the review on water balance at Watershed Renggung to ensure the satisfaction of the demand of irrigation and domestic waters at Central Lombok District. In this research water potential is 243.34 millions m3 comprising to 22.59 millions m3 river water, 252.51 millions m3 HLD supplement, and 1,309 mm rainfall or equaled to 252.51 millions m3. River water supply is calculated based on 80 % (Q80) dependable discharge from AWLR Renggung- Ponggong in the period from 1992 to 2011. Discharge is used as the guidance to determine water availability at Watershed Renggung. Result of analysis indicates that the maximum discharge is available at 3.658 m3/ second on March. The average debit is 0.721 m3/second, while the minimum discharge is 0.608 m3/second on October. The current water demand for multi-sectors is 225.11 millions m3. These multi-sectors include domestic, irrigation, animal husbandry, fishery and industry. For the industry, the water is supplied only to the industry in the sub-district at the Watershed. The analysis devices for water availability involve the analysis of rainfall and the analysis of surface water.The water demand total at Watershed Renggung for the next 25 years is estimated in the average as 227.58 millions m3. This total figure consists of: 208.40 millions m3 for irrigation water, 7.59 millions m3 for domestic water, 5.40 millions m3 for animal husbandry, 4.90 millions m3 for fishery, and 1.30 millions m3 for industry. The prediction of water demand total from 2011 to 2031 based on Water Demand Index (IKA) Standard of NSAD at NTB Province is 94.75 % in average, meaning that the water use rate is critical. By 2036, IKA is assumed as 101.87 meaning that the water use rate will be deficit.Keywords: water demand, water availability, water balance
Optimasi Pola Operasi Waduk Pelaparado Di Kabupaten Bima, Propinsi NTB Hilmi, Moh.; Masrevaniah, Aniek; Soetopo, Widandi
Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Vol 3, No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

In utilizing reservoir capacity, it should be notice that water quantity is highly limited, therefore water usage should be as efficient as possible. For this matter, it is necessary to optimize reservoir operation that related with reservoir water usage in order to fulfill all predetermined needs. One means to improve water utilization is by using optimization technique with Dynamic Program. Dynamic Program could imitate system behavior and therefore could be use to make decision from set of related decisions. This is in accord with reservoir optimization problem since reservoir operational pattern is highly dependent with time thus it should be resolve in gradual way.In this study, optimization process is divided into 3 stages, in each stage there would be some water volume allocated. Variables that connecting each stages is reservoir capacity alteration before or after a stage with grid 100 thousand m3, other than this optimization also done using alternative method by altering comparison percentage in cultivating area between rice plant (paddy) and dry season crops in 2nd cultivating season. During optimization its decision variables is the amount of reservoir water volume that being used to produce optimum profit in agricultural production. Optimization result is a back trace therefore we could gain optimal path in the form of reservoir capacity allocation that could raise maximum profit in agriculture production. Maximum profit that gained in alternative option for comparison of cultivating area between rice plant in 10% and dry season crop in 90% for second cultivating season with value of Rp. 57.755.117.590,-. Water volume that should be given toward each periods would based on water availability and needs, therefore maximum gain is cultivation season for 31.300 thousand m3, second cultivating season for 22.300 thousand m3, and third cultivating season for 15.900 thousand m3. Area resulted from optimization is paddy I=3.806 Ha, paddy II=380 Ha,dry-crop II=3.422 Ha, and dry-crop III=2.327 Ha. Improvement in profit of agriculture production after optimization compared with before optimization are Rp. 57.755.117.590,- - Rp. 56.289.203.000,- = Rp. 1.465.914.590,-.Keywords: reservoir, optimization, dynamic