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Accuracy Rate of Single Exponential Smoothing Method for Time Series Prediction: A Meta-Analysis Putri Nurfirani; Ahmad Mizwar; Elin Nurmyanti; Syaharuddin Syaharuddin
Indonesian Journal of Engineering (IJE) Vol 2 No 2 (2022): Edisi Maret
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama NTB

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Abstract

Abstrak: Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis hasil-hasil penelitian yang mampu memberikan informasi lebih mendalam terkait tingkat akurasi metode Single Exponential Smoothing. Pada penelitian ini mengambil data dari database pengindeks seperti Scopus, DOAJ, dan Google Scholar pada interval tahun 2012-2021 dan yang difilter adalah hasil penelitian yang memuat nilai jumlah data (N) dan uji akurasi (r). Hasil analisis data menunjukkan sebanyak 20 data yang memenuhi kriteria dianalisis mengunakan software JASP sehingga diperoleh nilai rata-rata effect size (ES) sebesar 0.66 termasuk kategori sedang. Pada bagian klasifikasi yaitu nilai estimate dari modifikasi sebesar 0.897 dengan nilai p-Rank-test sebesar 0.243, sedangkan yang non-modifikasi nilai estimate sebesar 0.556 dengan nilai p-Rank-testnya 0.129. Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the results of research that is able to provide more in-depth information related to the level of accuracy of the Single Exponential Smoothing method. The study took data from indexing databases such as Scopus, DOAJ, and Google Scholar at the interval of 2012-2021 and filtered were the results of research containing the value of the amount of data (N) and accuracy test (r). The results of the data analysis showed that as many as 20 data that met the criteria were analyzed using JASP software so that an average effect size (ES) of 0.66 was obtained including the medium category. In the classification section, the estimate value of the modification is 0.897 with a p-Rank-test value of 0.243, while the non-modification of the estimate value is 0.556 with a p-Rank-test value of 0.129.