Operations Research: International Conference Series
Vol 1, No 1 (2020)

Value-at-Risk Estimation Method Based on Normal Distribution, Logistics Distribution and Historical Simulation

Dwi Susanti (Unknown)
Sukono Sukono (Unknown)
Maria Jatu Verrany (Unknown)

Article Info

Publish Date
05 Feb 2020

Abstract

This paper discusses the risk analysis of single stock and portfolio returns. The stock data analyzed are BNI, BRI shares and portfolio. After obtaining a stock return, value at risk (VaR) will be estimated using the normal distribution approach, logistic distribution, and historical simulation. From the VaR results, a backtest is then conducted to test the validity of the model and the backtest results for BNI and the portfolio produce a smaller QPS on the historical simulation method compared to the normal distribution and logistics distribution approaches. This shows that BNI VaR and VaR portfolios with the historical simulation method are more consistent than other methods. While the backtest results for BRI produced the smallest QPS on the normal distribution approach compared to the logistical distribution and historical simulation approaches. This shows that the VaR BRI using the normal distribution approach is more consistent than the other methods.

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Journal Info
Operations Research: International Conference Series
Website

Abbrev

Orics

Publisher

Indonesian Operations Research Association

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Mathematics

Description

Operations Research: International Conference Series (ORICS) is published 4 times a year and is the flagship journal of the Indonesian Operational Research Association (IORA). It is the aim of ORICS to present papers which cover the theory, practice, history or methodology of OR. However, since OR ...