International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics
Vol 7, No 1 (2021): March 2021

Evolution strategies based coefficient of TSK fuzzy forecasting engine

Nadia Roosmalita Sari (Institut Agama Islam Negeri (IAIN) Tulungagung)
Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy (Universitas Brawijaya)
Aji Prasetya Wibawa (Universitas Negeri Malang)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Mar 2021

Abstract

Forecasting is a method of predicting past and current data, most often by pattern analysis. A Fuzzy Takagi Sugeno Kang (TSK) study can predict Indonesia's inflation rate, yet with too high error. This study proposes an accuracy improvement based on Evolution Strategies (ES), a specific evolutionary algorithm with good performance optimization problems. ES algorithm used to determine the best coefficient values on consequent fuzzy rules. This research uses Bank Indonesia time-series data as in the previous study. ES algorithm uses the popSize test to determine the number of initial chromosomes to produce the best optimal solution for this problem. The increase of popSize creates better fitness value due to the ES's broader search area. The RMSE of ES-TSK is 0.637, which outperforms the baseline approach. This research generally shows that ES may reduce repetitive experiment events due to Fuzzy coefficients' manual setting. The algorithm complexity may cost to the computing time, yet with higher performance.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJAIN

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

International journal of advances in intelligent informatics (IJAIN) e-ISSN: 2442-6571 is a peer reviewed open-access journal published three times a year in English-language, provides scientists and engineers throughout the world for the exchange and dissemination of theoretical and ...