ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Vol. 2, No. 2, Juli, 2021 : Estimasi

Perancangan Aplikasi Peramalan untuk Metode Exponential Smoothing Menggunakan Aplikasi Lazarus (Studi Kasus: Data Konsumsi Listrik Kota Samarinda)

Hairi Septiyanor (a:1:{s:5:"en_US"
s:22:"Universitas Mulawarman"
})

Syaripuddin Syaripuddin (Universitas Mulawarman)
Rito Goejantoro (Universitas Mulawarman)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Jul 2021

Abstract

Exponential smoothing is forecasting method used to predict the future. Lazarus is an open source software based on free pascal compiler. at this research, program Lazarus be design used exponential smoothing method to predict electricity consumption data in Samarinda City from September to November 2018. Purposed of this researched is to determine the procedure of building an exponential smoothing forecasting application and obtained forecasting result using the built application. Procedure of built the application are designed interface, designed properties and filled coding. The optimum smoothing parameters were obtained used the golden section method. Based on the analysis, electricity consumption data in Samarinda City shows a trend pattern, then the forecasting was used double exponential smoohting (DES) method are DES Brown and DES Holt. The best forecasting method for at this researched is DES Holt, because DES Holt method produced MAPE 0,0659% less than DES Brown method produced MAPE 0,0843%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ESTIMASI

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its ...