International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics
Vol 8, No 1 (2022): March 2022

The mortality modeling of covid-19 patients using a combined time series model and evolutionary algorithm

Imam Tahyudin (Universitas Amikom Purwokerto)
Rizki Wahyudi (Universitas Amikom Purwokerto)
Wiga Maulana (Universitas Amikom Purwokerto)
Hidetaka Nambo (Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Kanazawa University)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Mar 2022

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemics for as long as two years ago since 2019 gives many insights into various aspects, including scientific development. One of them is the fundamental research of computer science. This research aimed to construct the best model of COVID-19 patients’ mortality and obtain less prediction errors. We performed the combination methods of time series, SARIMA, and Evolutionary algorithm, PARCD, to predict male patients who died because of COVID-19 in the USA, containing 1.008 data. So, this research proposed that SARIMA-PARCD has a powerful combination for addressing the complex problem in a dataset. The prediction error of SARIMA-PARCD was compared with other methods, i.e., SARIMA, LSTM, and the combination of SARIMA-LSTM. The result showed that the SARIMA-PARCD has the smallest MSE value of 0.0049. Therefore, the proposed method is competitive to implement in other cases with similar characteristics. This combination is robust for solving linear and non-linear problems.

Copyrights © 2022






Journal Info

Abbrev

IJAIN

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

International journal of advances in intelligent informatics (IJAIN) e-ISSN: 2442-6571 is a peer reviewed open-access journal published three times a year in English-language, provides scientists and engineers throughout the world for the exchange and dissemination of theoretical and ...