Science in Information Technology Letters
Vol 2, No 1: May 2021

Forecasting electrical power consumption using ARIMA method based on kWh of sold energy

Gianika Roman Sosa (Universitas Negeri Malang)
Moh. Zainul Falah (Universitas Negeri Malang)
Dika Fikri L (Universitas Negeri Malang)
Aji Prasetya Wibawa (Universitas Negeri Malang)
Anik Nur Handayani (Universitas Negeri Malang)
Jehad A. H. Hammad (Al-Quds Open University)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2021

Abstract

Customer demand for electrical energy continues to increase, so electrical energy infrastructure must be developed to fulfill it. In order to generate and distribute electrical energy cost-effectively, it is crucial to estimate electrical energy consumption reasonably in advance. In addition, it is necessary to ensure that customer demands can be met and that there is no shortage of electricity supply. This study aims to determine the estimated long-term electricity use with a historical Energy Sold (T1) database in kW accumulated over several periods from 2008 to 2017. The ARIMA method with the Seasonal-ARIMA (SARIMA) pattern is used in forecasting analysis. The ARIMA method was chosen because it is considered appropriate for forecasting linear and univariate time-series data. The results of this study indicate that the MAPE (%) error rate is relatively low, with a result of 7,966, but the R-Square reaches a value of -0.024 due to the lack of observational data.

Copyrights © 2021






Journal Info

Abbrev

sitech

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Science in Information Technology Letters (SITech) aims to keep abreast of the current development and innovation in the area of Science in Information Technology as well as providing an engaging platform for scientists and engineers throughout the world to share research results in related ...