ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Vol. 3, No. 2, Juli, 2022, Estimasi

Peramalam Model ARFIMA-GPH dan Intervensi Multi Input pada Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar Indonesia

Vivi Dina Melani (Unknown)
Miftahuddin (Syiah Kuala University)
Muhammad Subianto (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
02 Jul 2022

Abstract

IHPBI is an early indicator in consumer price analysis. When inflation has occurred, Indonesia's economic stability begins to be disturbed, so in order to suppress inflation, the government raises interest rates and when the circulation of money begins to decrease. This study to see IHPBI in the next 3 years through forecasting using the ARFIMA method and multi-input intervention. This is done to find out the movement of the IHPBI over the next 3 years and to compare the two methods. The results obtained show that the selected model is ARFIMA(1,0.1579,0), the January 2009 intervention with ARIMA(1,1,1) of order (b=0, s=1, r=1) and November 2013 intervention with ARIMA(1,1,2) order (b=1, s=1, r=0). The IHPBI forecast for the next 3 years is increasing slowly every month

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ESTIMASI

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its ...