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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan

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Published by Bank Indonesia

ISSN : 14108046 EISSN : 24609196 DOI : -

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The Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan/Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking (BMEB) is an international peer-reviewed journal. This is a quarterly journal, published in January, April, July and August. The BMEB focuses on a broad range of topics covering monetary economics, banking, macro-prudential, payment systems, financial stability, financial markets, and economic growth (including policy coordination) that are of global relevance. This BMEB’s scope is global and the journal endeavors to publish high quality research that makes a contribution to the literature and/or has an impact on policy making. In this regard, the BMEB welcomes research papers from both central bank and non-central bank economists, academics and policy makers.

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Articles 651 Documents

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ANALISIS TRIWULAN IV - 2013: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan Bank Indonesia
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia triwulan IV 2013 lebih baik dari perkiraan Bank Indonesia disertai dengan struktur yang lebih berimbang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami peningkatan dari 5,63% pada triwulan III 2013, menjadi 5,72% pada triwulan IV 2013 ini (yoy). Hal ini ditopang oleh membaiknya ekspor riil sejalan dengan kenaikan permintaan mitra dagang negara-negara maju. Pada sisi lain, pertumbuhan permintaan domestik mengalami pertumbuhan yang moderat, ditandai oleh melambatnya konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi, khususnya investasi non-bangunan. Dengan perkembangan ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia untuk keseluruhan tahun 2013 tercatat sebesar 5,78%.

RISIKO TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA DI PASAR KEUANGAN TURKI PADA PERIODE WAKTU YANG BERBEDA Durmus Özdemir; Harald Schmidbauer
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

A Measuring the risk associated with interest rates is important since it is beneficial in taking measures before negative effects can take place in an economy. We obtain a risk measure for interest rates by fitting the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to positive extreme day-to-day changes of the interest rate, using data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Second Hand Bond Market, namely Government Bond interest rate closing quotations, for the time period 2001 through 2009. Although the use of the GPD in the context of absolute interest rates is well ocumented in literature, our approach is different insofar and contributes to the literature as changes in interest rates constitute the target of our analysis, reflecting the idea that risk arises from abrupt changes in interest rate rather than in interest rate levels themselves. Our study clearly shows that the GPD, when applied to interest rate changes, provides a good tool for interest rate risk assessment, and permit a period-specific risk evaluation. Keyword: Interest rate risk; covered interest parity; Turkey; generalized Pareto distribution JEL Classification: G1; C1

DAMPAK PEMBALIKAN MODAL DAN THRESHOLD DEFISIT NERACA BERJALAN TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH M. Noor Nugroho; Ibrahim Ibrahim; Tri Winarno; Meily Ika Permata
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months. Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold. JEL Classification: F31, F32

TRANSMISI DAMPAK MELALUI JARINGAN PERDAGANGAN: PENDEKATAN ASIAN-IO Ibrahim Ibrahim; Tri Winarno; Melva Viva Grace; Yan Fitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point. Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output Model JEL Classification : F16, R15

MENGUKUR RISIKO SISTEMIK DAN KETERKAITAN FINANSIAL PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA Sri Ayomi; Bambang Hermanto
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper measures the insolvency risk of bank in Indonesia. We apply Merton model to identify the probability of defaul tover 30 banks during the period of 2002-2013. This paper also identify role of financial linkage a cross banks on transmitting from one bank to another; which enable us to assess if the risk is systemic or not. The results showed the larger total asset of the bank, the larger they contribute to systemic risk. Keywords : Conditional Value at Risk; Probability of Default; systemic risk and financial linkages;Value at Risk. JEL Classification: D81, G21, G33

THRESHOLD OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND THE PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA Ndari Surjaningsih; Novi Maryaningsih; Myrnawati Savitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper analyzes the presence of the threshold of the real rupiah exchange rate which influences the profitability of manufacturing industry in Indonesia. By using a non-dynamics panel data over medium and large scale companies during 2001-2009, we found the threshold of 82.4 for the real rupiah exchange rate (REER). The REER index ranging from 82.24 to 101.13 with the change value between -5.01% and 20.09% (yoy) is secure for the profitability of Indonesian manufacturing industry. This paper also conform the significant affect of Total Factor Productivity on firm’s profitability. Keywords: Profitability, Manufacturing industry, exchange rate JEL classification: F1, D21, L6

ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: PERKEMBANGAN MONETER, PERBANKAN DAN SISTEM PEMBAYARAN, II - 2014 Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan Bank Indonesia
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 17 No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan II 2014 menunjukkan bahwa proses penyesuaian struktur perekonomian ke arah yang lebih seimbang masih terus berlangsung dengan ditopang oleh stabilitas makro ekonomi yang tetap terjaga. Kondisi ini tercermin dari permintaan domestik yang terkendali dan inflasi yang berada dalam tren menurun, meskipun defisit transaksi berjalan meningkat antara lain karena pola musiman triwulan II 2014. Walaupun mengalami peningkatan defisit dibanding triwulan sebelumnya akibat pola musiman, kinerja transaksi berjalan triwulan II 2014 lebih baik dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Sementara itu, stabilitas sistem keuangan masih solid ditopang oleh ketahanan sistem perbankan dan relatif terjaganya kinerja pasar keuangan. Di sisi lain, sistem pembayaran juga berjalan lancar dalam menopang perekonomian

PENGARUH PROFITABILITAS, GROWTH OPPORTUNITY, STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP NILAI PERUSAHAAN PADA PERUSAHAAN PUBLIK DI INDONESIA Sri Hermuningsih
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper examines the influence of profitability, growth opportunity, and capital structure on firm value. We apply Structural Equation Model (SEM) on 150 listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2006 to 2010. The result shows that profitability, growth opportunity and capital structure positively and significanctly affect the company’s value. Secondly, the capital structure intervene the effect of growth profitability on company’s value, but not for profitability. Keywords: profitability, growth opportunitiy, capital structure, firm value, SEM.JEL Classification: C51, G32, L25

DECENTRALIZATION AND REGIONAL INFLATION IN INDONESIA Darius Tirtosuharto; Handri Adiwilaga
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The link between decentralization and inflation as one of the key aspects of macro economic stability has been surveyed by a number of studies and the findings are generally inconclusive. Using sample data of developing and developed countries, previous study found that decentralization correlates with lower inflation in developed countries and vice versa, it correlates with higher inflation in developing countries. The key question is what factors play a role in controlling inflation in a decentralized system. This paper is to argue that the coordination problem is the main issue in controlling inflation in a decentralized system, particularly in developing countries. The empirical analysis is to determine the effect of decentralization on regional inflation in Indonesia and whether institutions play a role in the recent downward trend of inflation in Indonesia. A panel data that includes 33 observations of the Indonesian regions (provinces) is constructed with a dummy variable representing the existence of institution. In addition, this study analyzes whether decentralization supports the convergence in regional inflation and also the pattern of spatial correlation in regional inflation. The assumption is that there are some degrees of collective institutional coordination and cooperation with the establishment of Regional Inflation Task Force (RITF). Keywords : Decentralization, Regional Inflation Convergence, Regional InstitutionJEL Classification: E31, H73, R12

EFISIENSI BANK UMUM SYARIAH MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN TWO-STAGE DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS Muhammad faza Firdaus; Muhamad Nadratuzzaman Hosen
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The aim of this study is to measure the efficiency of Islamic Bank in Indonesia, to analyze the factors that affect the level of efficiency which is known as Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis method and to propose measurement of Bank Soundness with modified CAMELS. The objects of this study are 10 (ten) Islamic Bank (BUS) in Indonesia which analyzes from the second Quarter of 2010 until the fourth Quarter of 2012. There are 2 (two) methods which are used in this study, namely non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) on the first stage and Tobit model on the second stage. In addition, this study will illustrate the formulation of the financial factors of CAELS instead of CAMEL by integrating the results of efficiency level measurement using DEA in CAELS formulation. Overall, the results, show that the efficiency level of Islamic banks in Indonesia during the time period in this study, have not yet reach the optimum level of efficiency. In addition, modification of CAELS for the bank performance level method by integrating the result of DEA shows that the modification of CAELS could be more accurate in describing the bank performance level, particularly for Islamic Bank in Indonesia. Keywords: Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Tobit Model, CAELS + DEAJEL Classification: C02, C14, C54,G21

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