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Jurnal Varian
Published by Universitas Bumigora
ISSN : -     EISSN : 25812017     DOI : https://doi.org/10.30812/varian
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education, Social,
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences Other
Jurnal Varian adalah salah satu Jurnal Ilmiah yang terdapat di Universitas Bumigora. Jurnal ini bertujuan untuk memberikan wadah atau sarana publikasi bagi para dosen, peneliti dan praktisi baik di lingkungan internal maupun eksternal Universitas Bumigora Mataram. Jurnal ini terbit 2 (dua) kali dalam 1 tahun pada periode Genap (April) dan Ganjil (Oktober). Jurnal Varian fokus memuat publikasi pada Bidang Matematika dan Statistika.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 107 Documents
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PEMODELAN JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DAN INFLASI NASIONAL DENGAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) Ni Putu Ni Putu Nanik Hendayanti; Maulida Nurhidayati
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.44

Abstract

Vector Autoregresive Model (VAR) is one of the simultaneous time series models. VAR is a system of equations in which each of the variables is a linear function of the lag (past) the independent variable it self are the values of other variables of the lag in the system. Sometimes, several models of VAR may contain relationships between variables, this relationship caused VAR model become not representative. Model Vector Error Correction (VEC) can overcome this problem. Economy is one of the main foundations of the power of a country. However, economic stability does not always run smoothly because of many factors, both internal factors or external factors. One of the main indicators used to see the development of the economy of a country is the level of the rate of inflation. Inflation is continous tendency of prices to increase in against market demands in general of the community. There are many factors that may influence the on set of inflation i.e. money suply. This research aims to model the number of money supply and inflation on nationwide with Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). The results showed that the estimated VECM to function there are short term inflation the value of error correction short term to long term of 0.000235. On the analysis of the short term, changes in the money supply earlier in the month gave a negative influence to changes in inflation this month of 0.207. While the change in inflation months earlier gave a positive influence to changes the money supply in the month of 0.000570.
OPTIMASI PORTOFOLIO MENGGUNAKAN RESAMPLED EFFICIENT FRONTIER MEAN-VARIAN Gilang Primajati
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.45

Abstract

In the world of capital markets, especially the investment market, the formation of a portfolio is something that must be understood by investors. Portfolio formation is done by investors to maximize profits as much as possible by minimizing the risk of losses that may occur. Such an objective is said to be an efficient portfolio. Resampled efficient is a new concept in the formation of a portfolio introduced by Michaud. The Respected efficient frontier portfolio is made up of the weight of the asset, which is the average result of the Mean-Varian efficient weights with a certain rate of return. This procedure ensures that after average average weights the portfolio's mean-variant will remain the same as one. In portfolio optimization, the risk level is a matter of concern, the level of risk measured by Value at Risk (VaR) simulated by Montecarlo simulation. In this article used IPO stock to determine the optimization of its weight. For IPO shares, the trend of losses is greater than those of established stocks although returns on IPO stocks are positive but the changes for efficient portfolio formation tend to be negative.
PENGARUH BAURAN PEMASARAN TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN PEMBELIAN KONSUMEN PRODUK WARALABA KEBAB TURKI BABA RAFI DI KOTA MATARAM Phyta Rahima
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.46

Abstract

The tittle of this research is The Effect Of Marketing Mix to Customers’s Buying Decision at Kebab Turki Baba Rafi Franchise Product in Mataram. The Purpose of this research are to know The Effects of Marketing Mix to Customer’s Buying Decision at Kebab Turki Baba Rafi in Mataram not only simultantly but also partially and to know which one of Marketing Mix has dominant effect to Customer’s Buying Decision at Kebab Turki Baba Rafi franchise’s productin Mataram. The kind of this research is causality research. The data of this research are kuantitatif and kualitatif data. To answer the question, data is collected from 100 respondent who were asked to fill the questionaire about the research variables, Product, Price, Place, Promotion, People and Customer’s Buying Decision at Kebab Turki Baba Rafi in Mataram. Then t-test and f-test is used to test the data, beside that the researchers used validity and reliability test, and linear regression. The results of the t-test and f-test analysis shows that Promotion and Place to have a positive and significant impact on Customer’s Buying Decision at Kebab Turki Baba Rafi in Mataram. And the result of analysis show that 57.3% Y Variable explained by Independent Variable such as Product, Price, Place, Promotion and People and remain 42,7% explain by other variable out of used variable. Meanwhile, promotion and place have dominant effect to Customer’s Buying Decision at Kebab Turki Baba Rafi in Mataram. Based on the results, The all of question at quesionaire have a valid and reliable question which is used to get the data in this research
PENGENDALIAN KUALITAS PRODUKSI DENGAN MODEL GRAFIK KONTROL P PADA PT. ASERA TIRTA POSIDONIA Didi Haryono
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.47

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the quality control production with P-control chart model as an effort to suppress the number of defective products and identify factors that cause defects of produced in PT. Asera Tirta Posidonia. This research is a quantitative research with secondary data. The data analysis steps used are check sheet and histogram to present data, P-control chart, using fish bone diagram, and recommendation/ suggestion in quality improvement. This research can be concluded with looking at P-control chart which shows that product quality is the statistical out control. This can be seen in the control chart showing there are points limit out the control and the point is fluctuating and irregular. This is an indication that the process is in a state of uncontrolled or experiencing irregularities that need to be repaired. The results of fishbone diagram analysis can be known that four factors cause defects in the production process is derived from workers, production machine, methods, materials and environment. Therefore, the factors causing defects can be immediately done remedial action in order to avoid greater defects again based on proposed improvement actions that have been stated.
PENGARUH EKUITAS MEREK JILBAB ZOYA TERHADAP NILAI PELANGGAN DI KOTA MATARAM Ria Rosmalasari Sapitri
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.48

Abstract

This research entitle of the “Influence of Brand Equity of Zoya Hijab To Customer Valuein Mataram City” this research target is to know the assessment of customer at Mataram City for Brand Equity consist of Pervormance (X1), Social Image (X2), Value (X3), Trustworthiness (X4) and Commitment (X5) by product of Zoya hijab and to know the influence of Brand Equity of product of Zoya hijab to customer valui in Mataram city.This research represent the type of research of assosiatif eksploration, method of data collecting use is method of sample survey by meas of data collecting in the from of quetonaire alloted to 100 respondent people, with the technique of intake sample in the from of acidental sampling. Analyzer used is Multiple Linnar Regresion. The result of Multiple Linnar Regresion showed that Based of F test,can be known that Brand Equity variable consisting of Pervormance (X1), Social Image (X2), Value (X3), Trustworthiness (X4) and Commitment (X5) has significant influence by simultant to Customer Value (Y). And based of T test, can be known that Pervormance (X1), Social Image (X2), and Value (X3) has significant influence to Customer Value (Y) by partial. While the rest that consist of Trustworthiness (X4) and Commitment (X5) has not significant influence to Customer Value (Y) by partial.
PERBANDINGAN METODE CROSS VALIDATION DAN GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION DALAM REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK BIRESPON SPLINE Luh Putu Safitri Pratiwi
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.49

Abstract

Regression analysis is one of the most popular methods in statistics to explain causal relationships between one predictor variables to one response variable. In general, modeling can be done using regression analysis. The regression curve can be assumed by the parametric regression approach and the nonparametric regression approach. However, not all data acquired follows a certain pattern so that this type of data uses a nonparametric regression approach. The nonparametric regression approach is not related to the assumption of the regression curve form as it is to the parametric regression, and more flexible. There are several techniques performed for estimation in nonparametric regression ie Spline. Some cases in the regression analysis found many problems that can not be solved by simple regression analysis of one response because if using two response variables in the research, it must be seen the value of correlation between variables. As a result, regression issues must be solved by the birespon regression model. This study aims to describe the IMR and malnutrition status of children under five and to get the Spline model in the best birespon nonparametric regression through the relationship between the suspected variables by using Cross Validation (CV) and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) methods. The results obtained are the best model that is suitable for health by using CV method, obtained the minimum CV value located on Spline model linear one knot that is equal to 77.37831 with MSE of 76.75449.
PEMODELAN DATA DERET WAKTU DENGAN AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE DAN LOGISTIC SMOOTHING TRANSITION AUTOREGRESSIVE Gusti Ayu Made Arna Putri; Ni Putu Nanik Hendayanti; Maulida Nurhidayati
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.50

Abstract

Time series analysis is a statistical analysis that can be applied on data related to time. Modeling of time series data is widely associated with the process of forecastinga certain characteristics in the coming period. Most inflation data modeling is done using a linear time series models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In fact only the ARIMA model can be applied to models of linear time series data. Models of ARIMA hasn't been able to give good results when the data being analyzed is a nonlinear time series data. The inflation data, data that has a tendency to form patterns of nonlinear data so the application of nonlinear time series models can be done on the inflation data. Logistic model Smooting Threshold Autoregressive (LSTAR) is a time series model can be applied to data that follow nonlinearmodel. LSTAR then developed on data-financial and economic data such as inflation. If the inflation data are modelled with expected LSTAR approach can get a better result because already done smoothing in it. This research aims to know the best model that can be used to perform data modeling inflation. The results showed that the results of the comparison of the MSE and the RMSE for the model of ARIMA and LSTAR. Based on these results it is known that the model MSE has a value and LSTAR RMSE smaller compared to ARIMA. So the model more appropriate LSTAR is used to model the data of inflation
SISTEM INFORMASI MANAJEMEN HUJAN DAN BANJIR RANCANGAN Habib Ratu Perwira Negara; Syaharuddin Syaharuddin; Ripai Ripai
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.51

Abstract

Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengembangan untuk menghasilkan aplikasi berbasis desktop dalam menciptakan system informasi manajemen hujan dan banjir rancangan yang disebut SIM-HBR. Aplikasi ini dirancang untuk melakukan simulasi prediksi hujan dan banjir yang akan terjadi dalam periode waktu tertentu. Informasi tersebut dapat digunakan dalam perencanaan pembangunan infrastruktur dan kebijakan lainnya. System kerja SIM-HBR ini adalah mengambil data hidrologi DAS pada database mencakup Luas DAS, Panjang Sungai, Koefesien Aliran, Parameter Tr dan Alpha, Stasiun Berpengaruh dan Koefesien Theisen Stasiun. Kemudian menghitung nilai curah hujan maksimum harian tahunan DAS, validasi data mencakup, homogenitas, konsistensi dan kesamaan jenis (Standar Iso 9001:2008), memeriksa kesesuaian PDF dan CDF emperik VS teoritis mencakup : distribusi normal, lognormal, gamma, loggamma, gumbel, log gumbel, pearson3 dan logpearson3 dengan uji horizontal dan Vertikal menurut statistik Chi-kuadrat dan Kolmogorof, menghitung Hitung Hujan Rancangan dengan berbagai kala ulang menurut distribusi Probabilitas, dan menghitung Debit Rancangan dengan pendekatan Hidrograf Satuan Sintetik Nakayasu (HSSN). Sedangkan hasil yang ditampilkan adalah (1) Tabel data hujan harian maksimum tahunan, (2) Tabel uji validasi data curah hujan maksimum harian tahunan, (3) Tabel Hujan Rancangan dan Tabel Banjir Rancangan, (4) Grafik deteksi outlier data curah hujan maksimu harian tahunan, (5) Grafik series data curah hujan maksimum harian tahunan, (6) Grafik dan kriteria kesesuai PDF dan CDF teoritis dengan emperik data curah hujan maksimum harian tahunan, dan (7) Hidrograf Hujan Rancangan dan Hidrograf Banjir Rancangan.
PENGARUH EFEKTIVITAS DISTRAKTOR PADA ITEM TES PILIHAN GANDA TERHADAP PRESTASI BELAJAR MATEMATIKA SISWA Ahmad Ahmad; Nipaah Nipaah
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i1.52

Abstract

Adapun penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui ada atau tidaknya pengaruh efektivitas distraktor terhadap prestasi belajar siswa kelas VII di MTs.N Model Kuripan Tahun Ajaran 2010/2011. Pendekatan penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan bentuk penelitian ex post facto, dimana data yang dianalisis adalah data prestasi siwa yang sudah ada dan di dokumentasikan. Populasi pada penelitian ini adalah siswa kelas VII MTs.N Kuripan Semester II (Genap) yang terdiri dari lima kelas yaitu VIIA,VIIB,VIIC,VIID, dan VIIE. Dan pada penelitian ini peneliti menggunakan populasi penelitian yaitu semua kelas VII yang berjumlah 127 siswa. Berdasarkan hasil analisis data yang dilakukan dengan persamaan regresi sederhana diperoleh nilai F hitung lebih besar dari F tabel sehingga dapat di simpulkan ada pengaruh negatif efektivitas ditraktor terhadap prestasi belajar siswa kelas VII di MTs.N Model Kuripan Tahun Ajaran 2010/2011.
PENERAPAN ALGORITMA GREEDY DALAM MENENTUKAN MINIMUM SPANNING TREES PADA OPTIMISASI JARINGAN LISTRIK JALA Didiharyono Didiharyono; Siti Soraya
Jurnal Varian Vol 1 No 2 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v1i2.66

Abstract

This article discusses the applied of greedy algorithm principle in finding the optimum solution in determine minimum spanning tree on graph. Graph theory is one of the studies in discrete mathematics that are widely applied in various scope. This article is a literature study and applied of nets electricity network optimization using Prims algorithm and Kruskal algorithm. Network Nets System is one type of electrical network system construction. Based on results of the study and discussion can be concluded that the application of greedy algorithm using Prims algorithm and Kruskal algorithm in determine minimum spanning tree on its principle is the same. However, after a comparison between the two algorithms we consider that the ideal algorithm used to optimize the nets electric network is the Kruskal algorithm because in the case of the electric network has few sides and many vertices.

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