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Isran K. Hasan
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Department of Statistics, 3rd Floor Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo Jl. Prof. Dr. Ing. B.J Habibie, Tilongkabila Kabupaten Bone Bolango, 96119
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INDONESIA
JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Published by Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
ISSN : -     EISSN : 27227189     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps
Core Subject : Science, Social,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Environmental Science Social Sciences
Probability Theory Mathematical Statistics Computational Statistics Stochastic Processes Financial Statistics Bayesian Analysis Survival Analysis Time Series Analysis Neural Network Another field which is related to statistics and the applications Another field which is related to Probability and the application
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 44 Documents
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ANALISIS KETERKAITAN ANTAR KELOMPOK PENGELUARAN INFLASI MENGGUNAKAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL I GUSTI BAGUS NGURAH DIKSA
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 1 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i1.7763

Abstract

In this study, testing steps were carried out, namely the stationarity test, determining the optimum lag, hypothesis testing and the formation of the VAR model, the Granger causality test and classical assumptions. The data used are month to month inflation data for each inflation expenditure group in Indonesia for the period January 2013 to December 2019. The inflation expenditure group is foodstuffs; processed food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco; housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel; clothing; health; education, recreation and sports; and transportation, communication, and financial services. However, in this study only five inflation expenditure groups were used, namely foodstuffs; processed food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco; housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel; clothing; as well as transportation, communication and financial services. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between inflation expenditure groups and to find a forecasting model for inflation expenditure groups in Indonesia. After the Granger causality test was carried out, all probability values between endogenous variables, namely the five groups of inflation expenditures were less than 0,05 or rejected H0. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is a causal relationship between endogenous variables.
METODE CONDITIONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE DALAM ANALISIS PENYEBARAN KASUS PENYAKIT TUBERCULOSIS SANDIKA S. RAJAK; SUMARNO ISMAIL; RESMAWAN RESMAWAN
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 1 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i1.9771

Abstract

This research discusses the use of CAR model in finding out factors that significantly influence TBC transmission and figuring out its transmission patterns in Gorontalo city. The methods apply CAR model aiming to discover factors that significantly influence TBC transmission and Moran's Index aiming to identify its transmission pattern Findings reveal that the number of impoverished population and highlands in Gorontalo city are factors that significantly influence disease transmission The transmission patterns also indicate positive spatial autocorrelation that signifies a similar category among sub-districts
MODEL HYBRID NONLINEAR REGRESSION LOGISTIC (NLR) –DOUBLE EXPONENSIAL SMOOTHING (DES) DAN PENERAPANNYA PADA JUMLAH KASUS KUMULATIF COVID-19 DI INDONESIA DAN BELANDA RADITYA NOVIDIANTO
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 1 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i1.7757

Abstract

The economic relationship between Indonesia and the Netherlands is a good trade relationship, but the spread of COVID-19 disrupts the two countries' economies. Both countries need to have an explanation regarding the condition of COVID-19 to raise economic market sentiment. Based on this, Hybrid and non-hybrid models are used to predict the dispersion conditions and compare them through the MAPE value. The double-exponential nonlinear logistic regression hybrid model on the cumulative number of COVID-19 is not suitable for use in the Netherlands COVID-19 cases but is suitable for use in the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases Indonesia. The hybrid nonlinear regression logistic-double exponential model is one way to optimize MAPE, especially in training data. Based on the hybrid non-client regression logistic model, the peak incidence of Covid-19 in the Netherlands is estimated at 22 November 2020, and the hybrid nonlinear regression logistic-Double exponential model predicts that the peak of Covid-19 occurs in Indonesia on 28 November 2020. the Netherlands wave is around 2.83 percent and Indonesia 1.62 percent. Therefore the decline in Indonesia is predicted to be faster, but the Netherlands will reach the peak of the Indonesian news wave.
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI STUNTING PADA BALITA DI KOTA GORONTALO MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI BINOMIAL NEGATIF FAHREZAL ZUBEDI; MUFTIH ALWI ALIU; YOLANDA RAHIM; FRANKY ALFRITS OROH
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 1 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i1.10284

Abstract

This study aims to model stunting cases in children under five in Gorontalo city in 2018. In this model, it can be seen that the significant factors that affect stunting cases in children under five in Gorontalo city in 2018.  This study uses data on stunting cases in 9 (nine) districts in the city of Gorontalo and the factors that influence it. The research data were obtained from the Public Health in Gorontalo city. This study used one response variable, namely the number of cases of stunting and four predictor variables, namely number of toddlers who received exclusive breastfeeding, the percentage of low birth weight (LBW), the percentage toddlers who received complete basic immunization, and number of proper sanitation. The results obtained were the variables of number of toddlers who received exclusive breastfeeding and the percentage toddlers who received complete basic immunization which had a significant effect on stunting cases in children under five in the city of Gorontalo in 2018. This was indicated by the P-value of the variable for number of toddlers who received exclusive breastfeeding of 0.00283 and P-value of variable the percentage toddlers who get complete basic immunization is 0.06564. 
PERBANDINGAN HASIL PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DENGAN METODE BOX-JENKINS DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING EMMA NOVITA SARI; BAMBANG SUSANTO; ADI SETIAWAN
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 1 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i1.9181

Abstract

Forecasting the number of tourist visits is needed by tourism businesses to provide an overview of the number of tourists in the future so that problems that might occur can be overcome properly. This study aims to compare the results of forecasting the number of foreign tourists using the Box-Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing methods. There are two data used, namely data on the number of foreign visitors visiting Indonesia from January 2008 to December 2017 (Data I) and Bali according to the entrance of Ngurah Rai Airport from January 2009 to March 2020 (Data II). The best forecast results are obtained by comparing the Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. The comparison of forecasting results in Data I shows that the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method is more appropriate to predict the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia because it has a smaller RMSE value. While, the results of forecasting periods 2 and 3 in Data II show results that are far different from the original data. After tracking, it turns out this is caused by an unexpected factor, the Covid-19 pandemic which caused the number of tourists to drop significantly during this period.
ESTIMASI MODEL REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED MENGGUNAKAN METODE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION (MLE) NARITA YURI ADRIANINGSIH; ANDREA TRI RIAN DANI
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 2 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i2.10255

Abstract

Regression modeling with a semiparametric approach is a combination of two approaches, namely the parametric regression approach and the nonparametric regression approach. The semiparametric regression model can be used if the response variable has a known relationship pattern with one or more of the predictor variables used, but with the other predictor variables the relationship pattern cannot be known with certainty. The purpose of this research is to examine the estimation form of the semiparametric spline truncated regression model. Suppose that random error is assumed to be independent, identical, and normally distributed with zero mean and variance , then using this assumption, we can estimate the semiparametric spline truncated regression model using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method.  Based on the results, the estimation results of the semiparametric spline truncated regression model were obtained  p=(inv(M'M)) M'y 
PREDIKSI INDEKS STANDAR PENCEMARAN UDARA DI KOTA SURABAYA BERDASARKAN KONSENTRASI GAS KARBON MONOKSIDA MOHAMMAD MA'ARIF SYAIFULLOH
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 2 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i2.11326

Abstract

Kota Surabaya merupakan pusat kegiatan dari berbagai sektor di kawasan Jawa Timur salah satunya yaitu sektor industri sehingga banyaknya lapangan pekerjaan yang tercipta. Hal ini yang mendorong masyarakat luar Surabaya untuk mencari pekerjaan di Kota Surabaya. Karena lapangan pekerjaan di Kota Surabaya menyebar, menimbulkan mobilitas masyarakat dimana transportasi sangat dibutuhkan untuk melakukan mobilitas. Jumlah kendaraan di Kota Surabaya yang berbahan bakar bensin sebanyak 2.987.437 unit dan jumlah kendaraan berbahan bakar solar sebesar 179.331 unit. Hal ini dapat mempengaruhi kondisi kualitas udara di Kota Surabaya Sehingga dilakukan penelitian tentang prediksi indeks standar pencemaran udara di Kota Surabaya berdasarkan konsentrasi CO menggunakan kombinasi metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan regresi linear sederhana. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model peramalan terbaik berdasarkan nilai  RMSE dan MAD  adalah ARIMA(1,0,0) dimana model peramalan tersebut telah memenuhi asumsi residual. Berdasarkan hasil ramalan, diperoleh prediksi indeks standar pencemaran udara dengan menggunakan regresi linier sederhana menunjukkan hasil prediksi tertinggi pada periode 1 Januari hingga 3 Januari 2021 sebesar 10,5401 dengan kategori baik.
IMPLEMENTASI ALGORITMA NAÏVE BAYES CLASSIFIER DAN SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE PADA KLASIFIKASI SENTIMEN REVIEW LAYANAN TELEMEDICINE HALODOC REYNALDA NABILA CIKANIA
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 2 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i2.11364

Abstract

Halodoc is a telemedicine-based healthcare application that connects patients with health practitioners such as doctors, pharmacies, and laboratories. There are some comments from halodoc users, both positive and negative comments. This indicates the public's concern for the Halodoc application so it is necessary to analyze the sentiment or comments that appear on the Halodoc application service, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic in order for Halodoc application services to be better. The Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms are used to analyze the public sentiment of Halodoc's telemedicine service application users. The negative category sentiment classification result was 12.33%, while the positive category sentiment was 87.67% from 5,687 reviews which means that the positive review sentiment is more than the negative review sentiment. The accuracy performance of the Naive Bayes Classifier Algorithm resulted in an accuracy rate of 87.77% with an AUC value of 57.11% and a G-Mean of 40.08%, while svm algorithm with KERNEL RBF had an accuracy value of 86.1% with an AUC value of 60.149% and a G-Mean value of 49.311%. Based on the accuracy value of the model can be known SVM Kernel RBF model better than NBC on classifying the review of user sentiment of halodoc telemedicine service
PERAMALAN JUMLAH TITIK PANAS PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TIMUR MENGGUNAKAN METODE RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK SITI AISYAH; SRI WAHYUNINGSIH; FDT AMIJAYA
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 2 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i2.10292

Abstract

Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) is a neural  that uses a radial base function in hidden layers for classification and forecasting purposes. Neural Network is developed into a radial function base with an information processing system that has characteristics similar to biological neural networks, consisting of input layers, hidden layers, and output layers. The data used in this study is data on the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan Province obtained from the official website of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The purpose of this research is to obtain the RBFNN model and the results of forecasting the number of hotspots for the period January 2020 to March 2020. The radial basis function used is the local Gaussian function and the linear activation function. In this study using the proportion of training data and testing data 70: 30; 80:20; and 90:10. The results showed that the input network using significant Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) at lag 1 and lag 2, so that the RBFNN model that was formed involved Xt-1 and Xt-2. The best Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) minimum obtained  the 80:20 data proportion with 2 hidden networks. The RBFNN architecture that is formed is 2 input layers, 2 hidden layers and 1 output layer. Data from forecasting the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan Province shows that from January 2020 to February 2020 there was a decline and March 2020 an increase.
PEMILIHAN PARAMETER OPTIMUM MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DENGAN METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH TITIK PANAS DI KALIMANTAN TIMUR NURA WALIDA; SRI WAHYUNINGSIH; FDT AMIJAYA
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 2 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i2.10416

Abstract

The exponential smoothing method is one method that can be used to predict time series data by smoothing the data. In this study, the method used was exponential smoothing with one smoothing parameter from Brown. The data used is the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan from January 2019 to September 2019. The purpose of this study is to obtain the optimum smoothing parameter values  for exponential smoothing from the results of the optimization process using the golden section method to minimize the MAPE value, to obtain forecasting results for each method in exponential smoothing for the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan from October to December 2019, and obtain a good exponential smoothing method to predict data on the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan. From this analysis, the researchers chose the methods used were DES and TES. The optimum smoothing parameter obtained at DES was 0,558430 and TES was 0,376352. The results of forecasting the number of hotspots obtained in DES in October were 2.142, November was 2.707, and December was 3.271 with a MAPE value of 95%. The TES method forecasting results were obtained in October as many as 2.193, November as much as 2.975, and December as many as 3.852  with a MAPE value of 108%. Based on the comparison of the MAPE values in the two methods, the DES method is better than the TES for calculating the predicted value of the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan, although the two methods are not yet suitable for handling this case. 

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