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Journal of Developing Economies

JDE
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Published by Universitas Airlangga

ISSN : 25411012 EISSN : 25282018 DOI : -

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The Journal of Developing Economies (JDE) is a journal published by the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Airlangga University with the ISSN 2541-1012 (print version) and 2528-2018 (online version). This journal is published every 6 months, June and December, through a review process from both internal (Airlangga University) and external reviewers.

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Articles 78 Documents

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TARIFF ELIMINATION: IMPACTS AND TREATMENTS FOR RESOLVING NIGERIA-EPAs STALEMATE Onogwu, Godwin Odo; Bzugu, Peter Madu; C. Ani, Emmanuel
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 4, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v4i2.17946

In this manuscript, attempts were made to assess the impacts on Nigeria of full and instant tariff elimination from agricultural imports. A schedule of annual percentage reductions till full elimination as against an instant total or arbitrary elimination across all imports from the EU, as well asthe expected annual provisions via aids for envisaged trade to install infrastructural capacity aimed at forestalling fiscal imbalance, leading to stabilization for Nigeria, advocated. The study evaluates the likely share of Nigeriaâ€™s imports from the European Union (EU), Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS), and the rest of the world (ROW) in major agricultural product sections trade. The World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITs) platform was used to illicit a likely Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) scenario import data through a tariff eliminated query set up. The major impacts estimated include the resultant consumption impact, revenue impact, welfare impact, trade creation and diversion impacts, welfare impact of trade creation with consumption impact, and Welfare impacts of trade diversion with consumption impacts, in addition to their implications for scheduled tariff eliminations. Summary results were presented at product section levels as percentage of the impacts to contribution of agricultural sector in Nigeriaâ€™s GDP. Based on the estimated impacts and terms of trade deal, it is recommended that Nigeria should follow a schedule of percentage tariff reduction across product sections relative to the current most favored nationsâ€™ rather than arbitrary measures as a major policy of liberalizing trade. An annual percent tariff reduction rates over the 25 years, of 0.38%; 1.35%; 0.62%; 0.72%; and 0.2, for product sections 01-05, respectively, is recommended. In addition, it is also recommended that corresponding tariff losses in revenue due to scheduled reductions in tariff should be provided annually via aid for trade, for improvement inÂ infrastructure, production and exportation that will sustain and improve intra, inter and extra regional trade in a growth and globalization pursuit aided by the EU.Â Keywords: International Agricultural Product Imports; Aid for Trade; EPAs; Impacts; Percentage Tariff Reduction Schedule.JEL Classification: F; F1; F6

SME COMPETITIVENESS CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN EAST JAVA Muslih, Muslih; Erlando, Angga
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 4, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v4i2.13298

This study aims to analyse the competitiveness of the small and medium industries in East Java in the face of global economic openness. The method used is a cluster to find out the factors that influence the competitiveness of Small and Medium Industries (SME) by grouping them into groups based on similarity of characters. The use of the cluster method is carried out hierarchically, or processed through a series of successively fusing objects into groups. Based on the results of identification and analysis, then the conclusion, there are three cluster findings based on competitiveness categories. Cluster I is SME with low competitiveness, Cluster II is SME with high competitiveness, and Cluster III is SME with medium competitiveness. SME that have high competitiveness are SME that can increase efficiency in 2 fields, namely Production and Marketing. While SME that have medium competitiveness are SME that are superior in technology, so they can be classified in the creative industry.Keywords: Competitiveness, Cluster, SME, East JawaJEL Classification: O0; O1; O2; L6

IMPACT OF TRADE CREATION AND TRADE DIVERSION IN ASEAN-JAPAN COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (AJCEP) Aprilia, Gayatri Talita; Handoyo, Rossanto Dwi
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 4, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v4i2.12688

This study uses a gravity model to analyze the impact of the ASEAN-JAPAN COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (AJCEP) agreement on total Indonesian exports and to analyze the occurrence of trade creation or trade diversion. The data used in this study is panel data, the time used in this study from 2000 to 2015 consisting of 16 countries. This result finds the coefficient value of the FTA dummy of 0.207. This positive relationship indicates that there is a trade creation in AJCEP member countries and non AJCEP members. So it indicates that the welfare of member states and non AJCEP members. Total GDP, real exchange rate is positively correlated and GDP per capita difference and distance are negatively related to total Indonesian exports.Keywords: ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Gravity Model,Trade Creation and Trade Diversion.JEL Classification: G230, G400, O330

ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN TRADE: CASE STUDY AFTER THE AFTA AGREEMENT Poetra, Ronald Pratama
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 4, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v4i2.13045

The ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) began in 1993. The hope of this agreement was that intra-ASEAN trade to grow rapidly turned out to be slow. Based on data from the ASEAN Secretariat in 2016, intra-ASEAN trade experienced a slow journey in the range of 20-24 percent over the past few years. This study empirically analyzed the influence of AFTA on Indonesia's trade structure towards ASEAN using TSI, GL / IIT, and CTB index. In the period of 2012-2017 Indonesia's trade balance against ASEAN suffered a loss. Despite the loss, there was a decrease in trade balance losses from 2015-2017 (after AFTA). To analyze trade there are 10 commodity classifications determined by SITC revision 3. Based on the results of the TSI analysis, there is a specialization of 6 commodities trading which have high export power. The CTB analysis is only commodities of Chemicals and related products, n.e.s, which contribute positively to Indonesian trade. For IIT analysis there are 4 commodities where the average IIT index increases after the AFTA agreement.Keywords: ASEAN, Trade, AFTA, IIT, TSI, CTBJEL Classification: F180, F140, F130

EAST JAVA ONLINE TRANSACTIONS: DEMAND SIDE ANALYSIS Astuti, Riska Dwi; Fazira, Nadia
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 4, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v4i2.13048

Despite the study of rapid growth of online-based transactions in East Java over the past few years, little is focused on the demand side in which consumer characteristics are crucial in this event. This study aims to analyze the relationship of consumer characteristics on the expansion of online-based transactions in East Java. Panel data consisting of 38 districts/cities in East Java province in the period 2015-2017 is analyzed using the random effects method. The results show that the increase of tertiary education participation has a significant positive effect on digital transactions both for goods/service transaction and the use of banking facilities. In addition, mobile phones ownership also has a significant positive role in improving online transactions for the sale and purchase of goods services through the internet. Share of non-food expenditure has a positive effect on online transactions, especially for financial transactions. On the other hand, the productive age population has a negative significant effect on online buying and selling activities. Health variable insignificantly affects online transactions since the activities of transactions through the internet can be done both in healthy and unhealthy conditions. Likewise with computer ownership that does not significantly affect online transactions because people tend to use mobile phones as the transaction device. Level of expenditure does not affect online transactions because online transactions have become the lifestyle in this digital era. Thus, the internet-based transaction is no longer influenced by economic conditions.Â Keywords: Transactions, Online, Random Effects, Consumers.Â JEL: G230, G400, O330

EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TWIN DEFICITS IN INDONESIA: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAUSALITY AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OF TWIN DEFICITSâ€™ CAUSE Kuncahyo, Prawudya Dery
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 1, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

The aim of this research is to investigate the causality of deficit budget with the current account deficit (twin deficits) in Indonesia and to detect the decision indicators of twin deficit as an early warning system model of twin deficitsâ€™ occurrence. The research applied a quantitative approach with granger causative data to find the significant relationship of twin deficits in Indonesia. At the early stage, it analyzes the detection of twin deficits by using quantitative phenomenological approach in a form of mathematic formula calculation via non-parametric model with EWS signal extraction. It used 1 derivation standard (DS) and 24 months signal windows to extract signal. Signal extraction is applied to monitor the evolution of economic indicators which has a systematic tendency of twin deficits in Indonesia. Microsoft Office Excel 2007 and E. Views 7 are the software used within this research. The result of this research signified that there is a relationship between twin deficits in Indonesia with the budget deficit which is influencing the current account deficit. It strengthens the Twin Deficits Hypothesis (TDH) that explains the existence of budget deficit will affect the current account deficit by access of interest rate. Additionally, the result of a signal extraction calculation from the chosen indicator variable trend showed a positive signal of twin deficits. It is justified by the abnormal behavior of variables which states up to 50 percent probability. Those variables are export growth, import growth, terms of trade, inflation, growing industrial sector, real exchange rate, foreign reserve growth, and growth of world oil price.Keywords: Budget deficit, Current Account Deficit, Early Warning System.JEL: F32, F41

VILLAGE GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION IN DECENTRALIZED INDONESIA: DEMOCRACY, ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND BUDGET AUTHORITY batubara, rumayya
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 1, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

The village (desa) is the lowest level of government administration in Indonesia. In the pre-decentralization, although by law a village should held a regular election to select their leader, in practice the election is highly influenced and intervened by higher level of government. The new decentralization law has provided rural village governance with free election of village head and autonomy to design and decide budget and regulation without approval from the district government. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of corruption in village government of Indonesia in the more decentralized system of government introduced in 2001, focusing on the interrelationship between democracy and ethnic fractionalization at village level. Applying a Probit model to the IFLS (Indonesian Family Life Survey) data set on the perception of corruption incidence and the changes in governance at village government in 256 communities, this paper finds that an ethnic diversity at village level is positively associated with corruption if democracy is practiced before the decentralization, and, in contrast, is negatively associated with corruption if the democracy is newly adopted following the decentralization reform. These results are robust, with and without inclusion of budget autonomy, which found to have positive association with corruption.Keywords: Corruption, Decentralization, Democracy, Ethnic Diversity, Budget AuthorityJEL : D73, H11, Z10

LINKAGES, POTENTIAL AND SPATIAL EFFICIENCY OF PADDY PRODUCTION IN EAST JAVA Nugroho, Ris Yuwono Yudo
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 1, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

East Java has a big role in supplying agricultural product for nasional logistic. The problems are not completely resolved, regional development planning should integrate sectoral and spatial approach. The focus of study is to analyze the linkage of rice production to other sectors, in order to develop rice production. Research using the Input-Output models, Location Quotient to measure the degree of relative specialization of a region, and DEA to measure the performance of spatial efficiency. The result used IO table in 2010, contributors backward linkage of paddy sector are paddy sector itself, fertilizer and pesticide sector, also agriculture services and hunting, while the backward linkage contributors are paddy sector itself, rice sector, and food products and beverages. Spatially there are 28 areas that are able to serve the market of paddy products. If related to production efficiency, there are nine areas are included in the category of efficient production, with input in the form of land, and the number of farmers. Policy Implication related to the findings of input output approach, are the affordability of input proces, the streamlined of input distributing system, and the goes on education and information to the farmer about input usage. Whereas, related to the spatial aspect, in soft infrastructure as strengthening internal capacity of farmer and instructor. In the other hand, hard structure aspect especially restoration of irrigation, allocating best seed and fertilizer for farmer.

Evaluating the Changing Comparative Advantage Patterns and Export Specialization of East Java province (Indonesia) Padilla, Miguel angel esquivias
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 1, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

East Java (JATIM), the second largest province in Indonesia in terms of population and GDP contribution had experienced 50 percent of export growth from 2007 to 2013. The changes were not only in value but in composition and destination, meaning that a change in the pattern of exports of JATIM and export performance was observed in the seven years of analysis. This study looks at those changes from the point of view of comparative advantage and export specialization. JATIM kept 55 percent of their competitive industries since 2007 as the backbone of their exports, losing the other 45 percent, while allowing the creation of new industries. The gains in new industries are higher than the losses indicating that relocation of resources and the change of focus is bringing benefits to the province. Dynamic changes had occurred among commodities â€“gains and losses in comparative advantage and export specialization-, some presumed to be driven by commodity prices while others are more related to global integration.

The Political Economy of Coalition in Indonesia Sanjaya, Muhammad Ryan
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Vol 1, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Politics as an art of bargaining has gain prominent momentum following the victory of the president-elect Joko Widodo in Indonesia in 2014. This paper estimates the value of political parties under uncertainties over two possible coalitions: the Great Indonesia Coalition (Koalisi Indonesia Hebat, KIH) that supports Joko Widodo, and the Red & White Coalition (Koalisi Merah Putih, KMP) that supports Prabowo Subianto, the president candidate from the Gerindra Party. The estimation shows that the Golkar, the second largest earner of seats in the parliament, is more valuable for KMP, making them expensive to be maintained within this coalition. It suggests that the best choice for Golkar is to jump to KIH, unless the KMP provides substantial payoff to lure this party. Nonetheless, the pure strategy Nash equilibrium in a non-cooperative game of political bargaining shows that even though a party has small fair values, but it still has decisive impact in the bargaining table of a coalition.

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