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All Journal JEJAK Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences
Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi
Institute of Public Policy and Economic Studies
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators Against the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in Indonesia: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach Aminarta, Afla Afifa; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol 5, No 2 (2021): August
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v5i2.12267

Abstract

The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) is one indicator to determine economic growth. The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) is formed by counting the stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Macroeconomic conditions can influence the movement of the CSPI in a country. Macroeconomic indicators that affect the CSPI include inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates represented by the BI rate. This study aimed to determine how much influence the selected macroeconomic indicators had on the CSPI and determine the CSPI movement forecast. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as an estimation method. The research shows that the inflation, exchange rate, and BI rate variables do not affect the CSPI in the short term, and only the exchange rate variable affects the long term. Forecasting performed on variables shows an over-optimistic forecast for the exchange rate and BI rate variables.
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN PENENTUAN TITIK AMBANG BATAS INFLASI DI INDONESIA Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Prawoto, Nano
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan JESP Volume 15 Nomor 1, April 2014
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

Abstract: The study aims to see the relation between two macro indicators which are economic growth and inflation. The data are obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) and Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) from the year 1971-2012. The analysis use causality granger test and non-linier regression. The result of this analysis shows that there is correlation between inflation and economic growth. There is no evidence of inflation dot (1 to 20%) that has negative influence toward the economic growth; population does not have significant influence to the economic growth while investment has positive impact on economic growth. Abstrak: Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat sejauh mana hubungan antara dua indikator makro ekonomi yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Data yang digunakan diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) pada tahun 1971-2012. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah uji kausalitas granger dan regresi non-linier. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan dua arah yang saling berkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Tidak ditemukan titik inflasi (1 sampai 20 persen) yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan populasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan investasi berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.  
Measuring Inequality Using J-Bonet Index: What Can We Learn from Regional Data? Panjawa, Jihad Lukis; Guritno, Danur Condro; Sugiharti, Rr Retno; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Damayanti, Sekar Ayu
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 16, No 1 (2023): March 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v16i1.38850

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze Inequality Using J-Bonet Index Distribution based on regions dimension and its determinant factors. This study uses a quantitative research approach with Quantile Regression (QR) analysis. The results showed that overall, there was no noticeable difference in income inequality among regions. However, according to the status of regions and regions, the expansion area in eastern Indonesia is twice as high as regional income inequality in the parent area in the same region. Other findings, economic growth and poverty cause high-income inequality in eastern Indonesia, while in the western region of Indonesia has no significant effect. In western Indonesia, fiscal decentralization is the cause of high-income inequality between regions, while in eastern Indonesia has no significant effect. Human development has no real impact on income inequality. It is a preliminary study of inequality using J-Bonet and its determinants in Indonesia based on regions dimension with Quantile Regression (QR) as an analysis tool. It can add empirical evidence about the inequality and region dimension.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Aminarta, Afla Afifa Damayanti, Sekar Ayu Guritno, Danur Condro Jihad Lukis Panjawa Nano Prawoto, Nano Sugiharti, Rr. Retno