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Sugiyanta Sugiyanta
Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Jember University, Jember
Immunology & microbiology Public Health

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Journal : Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi

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FORECASTING OF COVID–19 WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) METHOD IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE: Peramalan Kasus COVID-19 dengan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) di Provinsi Jawa Timur Yeni Baitur Roziqoh; Mei Syafriadi; Sugiyanta Sugiyanta
Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi Vol. 11 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi (Periodic Epidemiology Journal)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbe.V11I22023.160-169

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the world's health system, including Indonesia. The national health system is facing challenges with increasing cases of COVID-19. With the forecasting of COVID-19 cases, it is hoped that it can be one of the references in dealing with COVID-19 and one form of mitigation in dealing with COVID-19. Purpose: This research aims to predict COVID-19 cases in East Java Province for the coming year using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method based on patient data from March 2020 to January 2022. Methods: This type of research is analytic. Forecasting future COVID-19 cases using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method based on COVID-19 data from March 2020 to January 2022. Results: Based on the results of ARIMA analysis, the best forecasting model for confirmed cases of COVID-19 is the model (1:0:1) with AIC values "‹"‹(14.22672), SIC (14.33357), while for cured cases is the model (1:2: 3) with the value of AIC (13.93054), SIC (13.03738), and for the case of death is the model (1:2:1) with the value of AIC (10.76105) and SIC (10.86790). Conclusion: From the results of this study, it is predicted that there will be an increase in COVID-19 cases in July 2022, January 2023 and June 2023.
Co-Authors Mei Syafriadi Yeni Baitur Roziqoh