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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Riza Andrian Ibrahim
Doctoral of Mathematics Study Program, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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Journal : BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan

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COVID-19 PROJECTIONS ON JAVA AND BALI ISLANDS INVOLVING VACCINATION AND TESTING INTERVENTIONS USING VARI-X MODEL Riza Andrian Ibrahim; Budi Nurani Ruchjana
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0837-0846

Abstract

The Indonesian government implemented the policy of increasing vaccination and testing of Covid-19 for travel from or to the Java and Bali Islands to reduce the Covid-19 projected spread in there. As participation in these efforts, this study aims to project the Covid-19 spread measured by the active case rates by involving the intervention of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 in the two islands. Projections are performed using a vector of autoregression integrated with the exogenous variables (VARI-X) model. This model is used because it can simultaneously project the Covid-19 spread in the two islands by involving interventions of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 as exogenous variables. The most suitable model obtained is VARI-X (4, 2, 0). The mean-absolute-percentage error (MAPE) of the model for the Java and Bali Islands is 5.3027% and 3.0301%, respectively. Based on the MAPE value, the model is very accurate for projecting the future Covid-19 spread on the two islands. This accuracy can be seen practically from the Covid-19 spread projection results in the next four days, which are very close to the actual data. This research is expected to help the Indonesian government project the spread of Covid-19 on the Java and Bali Islands.
Co-Authors Budi Nurani Ruchjana