Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 8, No 4 (2019): Jurnal Gaussian

PEMILIHAN INPUT MODEL ADAPTIVE FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM (ANFIS) BERBASIS LAGRANGE MULTIPLIER TEST DILENGKAPI GUI MATLAB (Aplikasi pada Data Harga Beras Kualitas Rendah di Indonesia Periode Januari 2013 – Februari 2019)

Khusnul Umi Fatimah (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Tarno Tarno (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Abdul Hoyyi (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Nov 2019

Abstract

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is a method that uses artificial neural networks to implement fuzzy inference systems. The optimum ANFIS model is influenced by the selection of inputs, number of membership and rules. In general, the selection of ANFIS input is based on Autoregressive (AR) unit as a result of ARIMA preprocessing. Thus it requires several assumptions. In this research, an alternative selection of ANFIS input based on Lagrange Multiplier Test (LM Test) is used to test hypothesis for the addition of one input. Preprocessing is conducted to obtain the value of partial autocorrelation against Zt. The input lag variable which has the highest partial autocorrelation is the first input ANFIS. The next input selection is selected based on LM test for adding one variable. To test the performance of LM Test, an empirical study of two groups of generated data and low quality rice prices is conducted as a case study. Generating data with stationary and non-stationary criteria has a good performance because it has very good forecasting ability with MAPE out sample for each characteristic are 5.6785% and 9.4547%. In the case study using LM Test, the selected input are and  with the number of membership 2. The chosen model has very good forecasting ability with MAPE outsampel 6.4018%. Keywords : ANFIS, ANFIS Input, LM-Test, Low Quality Rice Prices, Forecasting

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Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...