Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics
Vol 6: EECSI 2019

Optimized Fuzzy Backpropagation Neural Network using Genetic Algorithm for Predicting Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index

Anwar Rifa’i (Universitas Budi Luhur)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Sep 2019

Abstract

Investment activities in the capital market have the possibility to generate profits and at the same time also cause losses. The composite stock price index as an indicator used to determine investment continues to change over time. Uncertainty of stock exchange composite index requires investors to be able to make predictions so as to produce maximum profits. The aim of this study is to forecast the composite stock price index. The input variables used are Indonesia interest rates, rupiah exchange rates, Dow Jones index, and world gold prices. All data obtained in the period from January 2008 to March 2019. Data are used to build the Fuzzy Backpropagation Neural Network (FBPNN), model. The weight of FBPNN model was optimized using Genetic Algorithm then used to forecast the composite stock price index. The forecasting result of the composite stock price index for April to June 2019 respectively were 5822.6, 5826.8, and 5767.3 with the MAPE value of 8.42%. These results indicate that Indonesia interest rates, rupiah exchange rate, Dow Jones index, and the gold price are the proper indicators to predict the composite stock price index.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

EECSI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics publishes papers of the "International Conference on Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics (EECSI)" Series in high technical standard. The Proceeding is aimed to bring researchers, academicians, scientists, ...