Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM)
Volume 1, Issue 1: June 2020

Parameters Estimation of Generalized Richards Model for COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Genetic Algorithm

Maya Rayungsari (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Brawijaya University, Indonesia Department of Mathematics Education, PGRI Wiranegara University, Pasuruan, Indonesia)
Muhammad Aufin (Department of Mathematics Education, PGRI Wiranegara University, Pasuruan, Indonesia)
Nurul Imamah (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Brawijaya University, Indonesia Department of Mathematics Education, University of Muhammadiyah Jember, Indonesia)

Article Info

Publish Date
28 Jun 2020

Abstract

In this research, genetic algorithm was implemented to estimate parameters in generalized Richards model by adjusting COVID-19 case data in Indonesia. Data collected were the daily new cases and cumulative number of COVID-19 case in Indonesia from early March to early June 2020, that was reported by databoks.katadata.co.id. The best pair of parameters was selected based on the lowest cost function value, determined from the distance between data with estimated model and real data. Next, model with estimated parameters is used to predict new cases and cumulative cases for upcoming days. Numerical simulations were carried out so that the peaks and ends of the COVID-19 pandemic can be seen easily.

Copyrights © 2020




Citation Download
RIS
EndNote, Reference Manager, ProCite
BibTex
Latex, Jabref
Original Source
Download Original
Google Scholar
Check in Google Scholar
Journal Info
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM)
Website

Abbrev

JJBM

Publisher

Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics

Description

Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) aims to become the leading journal in Southeast Asia in presenting original research articles and review papers about a mathematical approach to explain biological phenomena. JJBM will accept high-quality article utilizing mathematical analysis to gain ...