Academia Open
Vol 4 (2021): June

Forecasting Of Criminality Problems Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Fatikhul Ikhsan (Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo)
Sumarno (Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo)

Article Info

Publish Date
13 Aug 2021

Abstract

Crime is a form of social action that violates legal norms relating to acts of seizing property rights of others, disturbing public order and peace, and killing one or a group of people. This has always been a concern for residents in various places in the Ngoro sub-district, therefore this information system was created to help police officers to find out where crimes have occurred. This information sfystem was created to predict the area in Ngoro sub-district using the Double Exponential Smoothing method. So that this system can predict which areas in the next month there will be no crime, and can assist the public in reporting the occurrence of criminal acts without having to go to the police station first. The Double Exponential Smoothing method was chosen by the author because this method can be used. The data used is data on theft of crime from 2017 – 2019. The results of forecasting in one village in Ngoro sub-district such as Manduro are 0.07426431198 if rounded up to 0.1 which is categorized as low crime and has a MAPE value of 7.94%. Based on the MAPE value of the forecasting results, it can be concluded that a good constant is between 0.1 – 0.3.

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Journal Info
Academia Open
Website

Abbrev

acopen

Publisher

Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemistry Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Other

Description

Academia Open is published by Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo published 2 (two) issues per year (June and December). This journal provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to the public supports a greater global exchange of knowledge. This ...