<![CDATA[The number of occupants in the building is important information for building management because it is related to security issues, evacuation, and energy saving. This article focuses on estimating the number of occupants using the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) method based on indoor CO2 levels. Probability theory underlies the Bayesian MCMC principle, where the mass balance equation of indoor CO2 is used as a physical model of estimation calculations. Determination of the variables in the mass balance equation is investigated to obtain the effect on the accuracy of the estimated number of occupants. It found that the higher the standard deviation of the input variable on the physical model, the higher the error estimation produced. In addition, the Bayesian MCMC algorithm is tested in a real-time scheme of test-chamber. The result shows an estimated error of 39%. Rapid changes influence estimation errors in actual occupants relative to the sample interval and the time delay of the estimation.]]>
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