ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Vol. 3, No. 1, Januari, 2022 : Estimasi

Nilai Risiko Terkondisi pada Return Finansial Menggunakan Metode Copula Gumbel

Najiha Alimatun (a:1:{s:5:"en_US"
s:21:"Hasanuddin University"
})

Anisa Anisa (Universitas Hasanuddin)
Andi Kresna Jaya (Universitas Hasanuddin)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Feb 2022

Abstract

The calculation of VaR is assumed normal distribution while the conditions in the real world distribution conditions of the return value depends on the market conditions that occurred at the time. Thus, this makes VaR estimates invalid which results in portfolio risk occurring greater than the predetermined risk. Therefore, In this study, the estimated risk value uses the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), which measures the expected value depending on what is the worst percentage of the risk loss, and using Copula Gumbel to model financial return in the investment data of PT. Telkomunikasi Indonesia tbk and PT. XL Axiata tbk. for the period March 11, 2019 to March 10, 2020. In this study, the CVaR estimation results for the 99% confidence level is 0.231, while for the VaR estimate it is 0.192. This indicates that risk value with CVaR estimate is better able to show higher risk than VaR.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ESTIMASI

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its ...