<![CDATA[Flood is a national disaster in Indonesia. Some of those factors, landform driven factors and non-driven factors in the form of land use management. Pacitan Regency has an alluvial landform that is vulnerable to flooding. BNPB states that the floods in 2018 continued on 07 March 2019, as a massive flood resulted in losses reaching > 600 billion. This study analyzed the potential and risk of flood in Pacitan Regency in 2018, in the past (1998 and 2008), and used it to projected future floods (2030). The research focused on land use change and its impact on flood potential and hazards. The potential and risk of flooding were analyzed using Paimin’s method. The parameter was analyzed from Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images in an unsupervised. The trend will be used for Business As Usual (BAU) analysis in 2030. As a comparison, land use analysis carried out based on Land Ability Class (KKL) and Spatial Planning (RTRW). Data validation using confusion matrix overall accuracy. As a result, there had been an increase of potential floods in high and very high levels (1998 to 2018) around 263.04 ha and 368.99 ha. This continues until 2030 (BAU), around 191.61 ha and 172.8 ha. Land use management with RTRW will increase the potential flooding at a very high level in 2030 + 1088.63 ha. The best land management is the KKL application which reducing the flood potential at a very high level + 1973.39 ha. Accuracy tests conducted at 100 points in 2018 showed that 88 model points matched the flooding event ( 88% accuracy).]]>
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