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Indonesian Journal of Fundamental Sciences

Vol 8, No 2 (2022)

Aswi Aswi (Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNM)
Muhammad Arif Tiro (Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNM)
Sudarmin Sudarmin (Program Studi Statistika, FMIPA UNM)
Ruliana Ruliana (Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNM)
Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik (Unknown)
Zulhijrah Zulhijrah (Unknown)

Publish Date
10 Dec 2022

South Sulawesi is a province that has the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the Sulawesi island region. Vaccination is one way that is considered effective in controlling the infection of a disease. Covid-19 vaccination in Indonesia was carried out in January 2021. This study aims to obtain the best Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average X (ARIMAX) model in modeling the effect of the number of vaccinations on the number of Covid-19 cases in South Sulawesi Province. Data on the number of vaccinations and Covid-19 cases in South Sulawesi Province (October 1, 2021 - January 31, 2022) were used. The best ARIMAX model in modeling Covid-19 in relation to the number of vaccinations is ARIMAX (2,1,0). The results showed that the number of vaccinations had a negative effect on the number of Covid-19 cases at the significant level of 10%. This indicates that if the number of vaccinations increases then the number of Covid-19 cases will decrease.

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