ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Vol. 4, No. 1, Januari, 2023 : Estimasi

Analisis Peluang Steady State Pada Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia Menggunakan Rantai Markov

Ika Pratiwi Haya (a:1:{s:5:"en_US"
s:22:"Universitas Hasanuddin"
})

Andi Kresna Jaya (Unknown)
Nurtiti Sunusi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
14 Feb 2023

Abstract

Covid-19 in Indonesia began to be recorded on March 2, 2020 with the number of positive patient cases as many as 2 people with the passage of time Covid-19 cases in Indonesia are always increasing. To see the development of Covid-19 cases in the future period, the opportunity for the number of Covid-19 cases can be used using the Markov chain. The Markov chain method is carried out using a transition probability matrix which is seen from the number of additions to positive Covid-19 patients in a steady state or a situation for a long period of time. Based on the results of the range of additions to the number of positive cases of Covid-19, 6 states were used. Furthermore, the calculation of the Markov Chain in the stationary state of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia after 328 days or 11 months obtained the probability of each state, namely state 1 of 0.0005, state 2 of 0.0069, state 3 of 0.1707, state 4 of 0.1462, state 5 of 0.1884 , and state 6 is 0.4873. Prediction of the addition of positive Covid-19 patients obtained results as many as 2058 patients in state 5 for July 1, 2022 with actual data as many as 2049 patients.

Copyrights © 2023






Journal Info

Abbrev

ESTIMASI

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its ...