Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 11, No 4 (2022): Jurnal Gaussian

ANALISIS SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION (SVR) DENGAN ALGORITMA GRID SEARCH TIME SERIES CROSS VALIDATION UNTUK PREDIKSI JUMLAH KASUS TERKONFIRMASI COVID-19 DI INDONESIA

Anindita Nur Safira (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Budi Warsito (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Agus Rusgiyono (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Feb 2023

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 or Covid-19 is a group of types of viruses that interfere with the respiratory tract associated with the seafood market that emerged in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China at the end of 2019. The first confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia on March 2, 2020, were 2 cases and until the end of 2021, it continues to grow every day. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method with linear kernel functions, radial basis functions (RBF), and polynomials. Support Vector Regression (SVR) is the application of a support vector machine (SVM) in regression cases that aims to find the dividing line in the form of the best regression function. The advantage of the SVR model is can be used on time series data, data that are not normally distributed and data that is not linear. Parameter selection for each kernel used a grid search algorithm combined with time series cross validation. The criteria used to measure the goodness of the model are MSE (Mean Square Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and R2 (Coefficient of Determination). The results of this study indicate that the best model is Support Vector Regression (SVR) with a polynomial kernel and the parameters used include Cost = 1, degree = 1, and coefficient = 0.1. The polynomial kernel SVR model produces a MAPE value of 0.4946215%, which means the model has very good predictive ability. The prediction accuracy obtained with an R2 value of 85.65011% and an MSE value of 161606.1.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

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Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...