BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 17 No 1 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF FINITE-STATES CONTINUOUS TIME MARKOV CHAIN ON DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 IN BANDUNG

Putri Monika (Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia)
Christophorus Soetikno (Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia)
Atje Setiawan Abdullah (Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia)
Budi Nurani Ruchjana (Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Apr 2023

Abstract

Markov chain is a stochastic process to describe a phenomenon in the future based on a previous state. In practice, Markov chains are distinguished by time into two, namely discrete-time Markov chain and continuous-time Markov Chain. This research will discuss the continuous-time Markov chain with finite-state. COVID-19 phenomena can describe and predict using the continuous-time Markov chain. Authors use the data daily cases of COVID-19 in Greater Bandung including Bandung City, Bandung District, West Bandung District, Cimahi City and Sumedang District. Used data came from simulated data of daily cases of COVID-19 in Greater Bandung from August, 2020 until November 14, 2021 that recorded through the website COVID-19 of West Java. In terms of described and predicted the COVID-19 phenomenon in Greater Bandung for long-term probability, authors use stationary distribution and limit distribution. COVID-19 phenomenon is described into two states: state 0 (lower than average of data) and state 1 (higher than average of data). The result of continuous-time Markov chain with finite-state shows that the probability of the daily cases of COVID-19 for five locations in Greater Bandung is state 0 have a larger probability than state 1. It means that COVID-19 in Greater Bandung over the long-term will decrease.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...