Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 12, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian

PEMODELAN INDEKS HARGA PERDAGANGAN BESAR (IHPB) SEKTOR EKSPOR MENGGUNAKAN ARFIMA-GARCH

Gandhes Linggar Winanti (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Dwi Ispriyanti (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Sugito Sugito (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)



Article Info

Publish Date
04 May 2023

Abstract

Indonesia's price index serves as a barometer for the nation's economic condition. One of the Indonesia’s price index is Wholesale Price Index (WPI). WPI is a price index that tracks the average change in wholesale prices over time. Time series analysis can be used for forecasting because WPI is one of the time series data. WPI is long memory, which is a condition in which data from different time periods have a high link despite being separated by a large amount of time. The Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model can be used to overcome this feature when modeling time series data. The assumption of constant error variance is not fulfilled in the IHPB data analysis, indicating that the data is heteroscedastic. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model is one of the models used to overcome heteroscedasticity. The data used is the export sector of WPI from January 2003 to June 2021. The best model for forecasting WPI is ARFIMA(1,b,2) – GARCH(1,1) with b=0,7345333,  and MAPE value is 3,150875%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...