UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 1 No. 4 (2023): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

Application of the Fuzzy Time Series-markov Chain Method to the Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the US Dollar (USD)

rahmad revi fadillah (Unknown)
Dony Permana (Unknown)
Yenni Kurniawati (Unknown)
Admi Salma (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Aug 2023

Abstract

The exchange rate plays an important role in evaluating the Indonesian economy due to how much it affects the nation's overall financial situation. Activities for projecting future exchange rates can be conducted based on their dynamic characteristics. The purpose of this study is to predict the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) against the United States Dollar (USD) using the Fuzzy Time Series Markov chain (FTS-MC) method. Researchers apply the FTS-MC approach to analyze the connection between every bit of historical data and the direction in which it moved in order to forecast future data movements. While the rupiah exchange rate Forecast against the USD between January 2 and January 31, 2023, with a MAPE value of 2.41% and a forecast accuracy score of 97.58% result. During up to 8 forecasted periods, the forecasting value gained by the FTS-MC approach is close to the actual value, and the next period is higher than the current value. The forecasting results graph further shows that the FTS-MC approach gives forecast values fluctuate around IDR15,800.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ujsds

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its ...