KOMPUTIKA - Jurnal Sistem Komputer
Vol 12 No 2 (2023): Komputika: Jurnal Sistem Komputer

Prediksi Harga Cabai Rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Model Lee

Vida Komaria (Unknown)
Nova El Maidah (Unknown)
Muhammad Ariful Furqon (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
08 Sep 2023

Abstract

ABSTRACT - East Java is the province with the most significant amount of chili pepper production in Indonesia based on data from BPS in 2021 which is around 41.75. Chili pepper is a commodity that high price fluctuations that will impact several parties, so a mechanism is needed to predict the price of chili pepper to become a consideration in decision making. Lee's fuzzy time series method can be used to predict time series stationary or non-stationary data. The research was conducted using historical data on the price of red and green chili peppers in East Java Province from April 2017 to February 2023 with a weekly data period of 307 data. The Z1 and Z2 values used to get the smallest error results are Z1 = 950 and Z2=400 for red chili peppers while for green chili peppers values the Z1 and Z2=100. The error value of forecasting red chili pepper prices is MAE = 4,469.04 RMSE = 6,138.64 MAPE = 13.09% (good MAPE value category) and the error value for green chili pepper is MAE = 1,486.15 RMSE = 2,211.06 and MAPE = 6.72% (very good MAPE value category). Keywords – forecasting; Lee’s fuzzy time series; chili pepper price; MAPE; Python

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Journal Info

Abbrev

komputika

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

Jurnal Ilmiah KOMPUTIKA adalah wadah informasi berupa hasil penelitian, studi kepustakaan, gagasan, aplikasi teori dan kajian analisis kritis di bidang kelimuan bidang Sistem ...