Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Informatika & Elektro (JITEK)
Vol 2, No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Informatika & Elektro (JITEK)

Prediksi Jumlah Siswa Baru Menggunakan Single Exponential Smooth (Studi Kasus : SMA Dharmawangsa)

Bunaya Arthavia Sitorus (Universitas Medan Area)
Rizki Muliono (Universitas Medan Area)



Article Info

Publish Date
27 Oct 2023

Abstract

Prediction is the process of systematically estimating the most likely event to occur in the future based on past and current information, so that errors (the difference between what happened and what is expected) are minimized. Dharmawangsa High School has the goal of adding/improving school facilities and infrastructure. Therefore, a solution must be found to overcome this problem, one of which is predicting the number of new Dharmawangsa High School students so that the Dharmawangsa High School can predict the addition and reduction of school facilities and infrastructure. Because of this, researchers approached the solution by implementing the Single Exponential Smooth method and designing a system that is useful for predicting the number of new students at Dharmawangsa High School. From the research results, the number of new students in 2024 will be 299 science students and 101 social studies students. The smallest mean squared error (MSE) for the number of new science students was obtained with α=0.3, namely 1723,673 and the smallest MSE for the number of new social studies students with α=0.9, namely 1293,873. The smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the number of new science students was obtained with α=0.6, namely 10.29% with a good description of the method used. Meanwhile, the smallest MAPE on the number of new IPS students was obtained with α=0.8, namely 26.64% with a description of the method used was bad. This study concludes that the Single Exponential Smooth Method can be used to predict the number of new students at Dharmawangsa High School so that the predicted value can be known in the following year. As well as researchers managed to build and design a system to predict the number of new students at Dharmawangsa High School.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jitek

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Informatika dan Elektro (JITEK) is focuses on the publication of the results of scientific research related to fields. This article is published in the internal and external academic community of the University of Medan Area (UMA) especially in the field of Informatics and ...