Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Vol 3 No 01 (2024): PARAMETER: Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika dan Terapannya

PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MEMPREDIKSI TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS

Syaifullah Adam Candio (Universitas Pattimura)
Arlene Henny Hiariey (Universitas Pattimura)
Ronald John Djami (Universitas Pattimura)



Article Info

Publish Date
03 Mar 2024

Abstract

From 2010 to 2022, crime in Indonesia, especially Maluku Province, tends to increase compared to previous years. Considering these problems, a crime rate prediction system is needed so that the Maluku Provincial Police is able to estimate the quantity and type of crime that is likely to occur in the future. One of the prediction methods that has been used for crime prediction is Exponential Smoothing (ES). The Smoothing method is applied to obtain predictions based on time-series data. In this discussion, the author will compare the forecasting methods of Double Exponential Smoothing, and Triple Exponential Smoothing. The Double Exponential Smoothing method is suitable to be used to provide forecasting results when a data has a certain trend pattern. This Triple Exponential Smoothing method is used when there are still dominant expression elements &; seasonal conduite shown in the data. The MAPE value for the Double Exponential Smoothing method is 20.69552 and for the Triple Exponential Smoothing method is 30.48323, it can be said that the MAPE value of the Double Exponential Smoothing method is smaller than the Triple Exponential Smoothing method. So that the Double Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate than the Triple Exponential Smoothing method to predict the crime rate.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

parameter

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya is an open access journal (e-journal) published since April 2022. Parameteris published by Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Pattimura. Parameterpublished scientific articles on various aspects related to ...