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ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Published by Universitas Hasanuddin
ISSN : 2721379X     EISSN : 27213803     DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.20956/ejsa
Core Subject : Education,
Mathematics
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its application. The material can be sourced from the results of research, theoretical, computational development and all fields of science development that are in one group.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 6 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi" : 6 Documents clear
Pemodelan Regresi Logistik Menggunakan Metode Momen Diperumum Grace Oktavia Yusuf; Andi Kresna Jaya; Nirwan Ilyas
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (342.836 KB) | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.9304

Abstract

Regresi logistik merupakan model regresi yang sering digunakan dalam pemodelan data kategori, namun dalam menentukan modelnya terkadang tidak dapat diselesaikan dengan cara biasa dikarenakan variabel respon yang bersifat kategorikal mengikuti distribusi bernoulli. Sehingga dalam menentukan model diperlukan suatu estimasi parameter untuk  mendapatkan informasi mengenai parameter populasi. Metode momen diperumum (Generalized method of moments/GMM) adalah salah satu metode estimasi parameter yang digunakan untuk mengeksploitasi informasi bentuk kondisi momen populasi yang merupakan perluasan dari metode momen. Dari penggunaan estimasi parameter GMM diperoleh bahwa dengan menggunakan kondisi momen yang sama dengan metode momen pada umumnya menghasilkan estimasi yang sama dengan metode momen ataupun dengan estimasi OLS. Dalam mengestimasi parameter regresi logistik pun diperlukan suatu algoritma untuk menyelesaikan bentuk nonlinear-nya, sehingga digunakan iterasi Reweighted least square yang pembobotnya berubah setiap pengiterasian.Kata Kunci: Regresi Logistik Biner, Metode Momen Diperumum, Iterasi Reweighted Least Square.Regresi logistik merupakan model regresi yang sering digunakan dalam pemodelan data kategori, namun dalam menentukan modelnya terkadang tidak dapat diselesaikan dengan cara biasa dikarenakan variabel respon yang bersifat kategorikal mengikuti distribusi bernoulli. Sehingga dalam menentukan model diperlukan suatu estimasi parameter untuk  mendapatkan informasi mengenai parameter populasi. Metode momen diperumum (Generalized method of moments/GMM) adalah salah satu metode estimasi parameter yang digunakan untuk mengeksploitasi informasi bentuk kondisi momen populasi yang merupakan perluasan dari metode momen. Dari penggunaan estimasi parameter GMM diperoleh bahwa dengan menggunakan kondisi momen yang sama dengan metode momen pada umumnya menghasilkan estimasi yang sama dengan metode momen ataupun dengan estimasi OLS. Dalam mengestimasi parameter regresi logistik pun diperlukan suatu algoritma untuk menyelesaikan bentuk nonlinear-nya, sehingga digunakan iterasi Reweighted least square yang pembobotnya berubah setiap pengiterasian. Kata Kunci: Regresi Logistik Biner, Metode Momen Diperumum, Iterasi Reweighted Least Square.
Perbandingan Estimasi Metode Kuadrat Terkecil Terboboti dan Metode Transformasi Box-Cox Pada Data Heteroskedastisitas Risma Risma; Sitti Sahriman
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (436.124 KB) | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.10386

Abstract

Dalam mengestimasikan parameter regresi umumnya digunakan metode kuadrat terkecil. Metode ini memiliki beberapa asumsi yang perlu dipenuhi salah satunya yakni homoskedastisitas. Pelanggaran asumsi homoskedastisitas dapat menyebabkan model estimasi tidak efisien. Oleh karena itu jika terjadi pelanggaran homoskedastisitas maka metode kuadrat terkecil tidak dapat lagi digunakan,sehingga diperukan metode alternative. Metode untuk mengatasi pelanggaran homoskedatisitas dua diantaranya yakni  metode kuadrat terkecil terboboti dan metode transformasi Box-Cox. Dalam penelitian ini akan dibandingkan metode kuadrat terkecil terboboti dan metode transformasi Box-Cox. Dari penerapan kedua metode tersebut didapatkan metode kuadrat terkecil terboboti memiliki RMSE (root mean square error) yang lebih kecil dan R2 yang lebih besar dibandingkan metode transformasi Box-Cox. Maka dapat disimpulkan metode kuadrat terkecil terboboti lebih bagus digunakan dalam menangani pelanggaran homoskedastisitas.
Pemodelan dan Peramalan Harga Penutupan Saham Perbankan dengan Metode ARIMA dan Family ARCH Devi Novanti; Hajrul Multazam; Novira Laily Husna; Ossy Sanityasa Rahajeng; Selfina L; Rani Nooraeni
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (581.463 KB) | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.9637

Abstract

Modelling the stock closing price stock is useful so that the investors are expected to be able to understand the situation of the stock, in order to make the right decision when they want to buy or sell their stocks. This study uses the ARIMA and Family ARCH methods in modelling the volatility of four banking stocks that are in high demand by the public, which are Bank BRI (BBRI), Bank BNI (BBNI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), and Bank BCA (BBCA) from January 1st 2017 until January 31st 2020. Stock returns are modelled by using the ARIMA model, then proceeded with the heteroscedasticity testing. Based on the test, we obtained the results of BBRI, BMRI, and BBCA are heteroscedastic. While BBNI are homoscedastic. The volatility models obtained from the test are BBNI has ARIMA models ([6,13], 1, [6,13]), BBRI has ARI models ([2,24,28), 1,0) -ARCH (1), BMRI has an ARIMA (2,1,4) -GARCH (1,1) model, and BBCA has ARI ([1,2], 1,0) -GARCH (1,1) model. Based on the rising value of the stock price, we suggest the best stock for the investors is BBRI because it has the largest increase of 10% followed by BBCA and BMRI
Estimasi Model Regresi Kuantil Spline Kuadratik pada Data Trombosit dan Hematokrit Pasien DBD Bunga Aprilia; Anna Islamiyati; Anisa Anisa; Nirwan Ilyas
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (497.693 KB) | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.9264

Abstract

Nonparametric quantile regression is used to estimate the regression function when assumptions about the shape of the regression curve are unknown. It is only assumed to be subtle by involving quantile values. One estimator in nonparametric regression is spline. The segmented properties of the spline provide more flexibility than ordinary polynomials. Therefore, the nature of the spline makes it possible to adapt more effectively to the local characteristics of a function or data. This study proposes to get the results of the estimation platelet count model to the hematocrit value of DHF. The optimal model obtained from the estimation of quadratic spline quantile regression is at quantile 0.5 with one knot and the GCV value is 41.5. The results of the estimation show that there is a decrease in platelet counts as the percentage of hematocrit increase.
Regresi Data Panel dengan Pendekatan Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect model (FEM) dan Random Effect Model (REM) (Studi Kasus: Persentase Penduduk Miskin Menurut Kabupaten/Kota di Kalimantan Timur Tahun 2015-2018) Eka Nur Amaliah; Darnah Darnah; Sifriyani Sifriyani
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (477.461 KB) | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.10574

Abstract

Panel data regression is a regression that combines cross section data and time series data. Panel data regression estimation can be done through 3 estimates namely CEM, FEM and REM. This research will make a modeling of the percentage of poor people according to regencies / cities in East Kalimantan using panel data regression analysis. Poverty occurs due to lack of income and assets to meet basic needs. For this reason, variables that are assumed to affect the percentage of the poor are used, including the Population Growth Rate (LPP), Human Development Index (HDI), and Adjustable Per capita Expenditure (PPD). By using 3 CEM, FEM and REM approaches based on testing, the best FEM model is obtained. Based on the FEM model the factors that significantly influence are the HDI and PPD. A value of 0.7755 means that the HDI and PPD can explain the percentage of poor people according to the Regency / City in East Kalimantan of 77.55% while the remaining 22.45% is influenced by other variables not yet included in the model.
Estimasi Parameter Model Poisson Hidden Markov Pada Data Banyaknya Kedatangan Klaim Asuransi Jiwa Vieri Koerniawan; Nurtiti Sunusi; Raupong Raupong
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 1, No. 2, Juli, 2020 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (259.075 KB) | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.9302

Abstract

The Poisson hidden Markov model is a model that consists of two parts. The first part is the cause of events that are hidden or cannot be observed directly and form a Markov chain, while the second part is the process of observation or observable parts that depend on the cause of the event and following the Poisson distribution. The Poisson hidden Markov model parameters are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). But it is difficult to find analytical solutions from the ln-likelihood function. Therefore, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to obtain its numerical solutions which are then applied to life insurance data. The best model is obtained with 2 states or m = 2 based on the smallest Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) value of 338,778 and the average predicted number of claims arrivals is 0.385 per day.

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