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Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
ISSN : 20863128     EISSN : 2502180x     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
The Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (EJEM) is a peer-reviewed journal which provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to emerging market economies. Published every April and October, this journal welcomes original research papers on all aspects of economic development issues. The journal is fully open access for scholarly readers.
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Articles 9 Documents
Search results for , issue "Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021" : 9 Documents clear
The effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth: Evidence from emerging markets Abdullahil Mamun; Emrah Eray Akça; Harun Bal; Nazamul Hoque
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art1

Abstract

Purpose – This study’s main purpose is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth performance for 21 emerging markets from 1980 through 2016.Methods – The study individually measures the real exchange rate misalignment series for 21 emerging markets by using the single-equation approach and then estimates the effect of real exchange rate misalignment, undervaluation, and overvaluation on economic growth performance through dynamic panel system generalized method of moments approach.Findings – The study finds that the real exchange rate of emerging markets is significantly misaligned. The study also argues that any deviation of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value impairs economic growth. The view that overvaluation erodes growth is customarily accepted, while a real undervaluation is found to be a growth deteriorating fact.Implication - From the policy perspective, policymakers should be cautious enough in setting exchange rate policies to check its sustained misalignments over time so that it can enrich the ability of concerned authorities to attain the growth target by using it as a policy instrument.Originality – The study is in response to the need felt for a common analytical framework for examining misalignment in the real exchange rate to make a more inclusive decision relating to its effects on the growth performance of emerging markets.
Lingering effects of foreign resource dependency in Pakistan: Assessing gains from domestic resources Mubbasher Munir; Muhammad Saeed Meo; Kinza Younas; Noman Arshed; Asma Khalid Jamil
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art7

Abstract

Purpose - This study explores the asymmetric effects of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) on economic growth in Pakistan.Methods - This paper uses an Asymmetric Effects ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model.Findings - The results show that the effects of increasing and decreasing FDI are not equal. The study concludes that reducing FDI is more beneficial for economic growth, particularly in the longer horizon. It mobilizes domestic investment and promotes financial freedom while reducing the reliance on pollution-intensive multinational corporations and taps indigenous knowledge gains.Implications - This study proves that self-reliance is more beneficial for the case of Pakistan.Originality - The researchers and policymakers are unclear about the merits and demerits of FDI as a substitute for domestic investment. Empirical studies are majorly convinced that an increase in FDI generally merits economic growth but weighs in the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and ignores the indigenous knowledge-based domestic resource.
Nexus between real effective exchange rate misalignment and rubber export in Nigeria Ridwan Mukaila
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art2

Abstract

Purpose - This study examines the nexus between the real effective exchange rate misalignment (REERM) and rubber exports in Nigeria. The effects of equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and some economic fundamentals on rubber exports are also investigated.Methods - Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are employed as methods of data analysis.Findings - The results show that a long-run relationship exists between REERM and rubber export. REERM influenced rubber export negatively while ERER had a positive effect on rubber export. The past values of REERM can be used to predict the present volume of rubber export, and the past values of ERER and rubber export can be used to forecast the present values of each other. Trade openness positively influences rubber export while the term of trade has a negative effect on rubber export.Implication - REERM worsens the performance of rubber export in Nigeria while ERER improves its performance. Thus, rubber export can be enhanced through measures such as trade openness, improved term of trade and monitoring of exchange rate to reduce the REERM and maintain a stabilized equilibrium exchange rate system.Originality - This study focuses on the effect of deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium, ERER and economic fundamentals on rubber export which has not been previously investigated.
Export diversification and economic growth: A threshold regression approach for emerging markets and developing countries Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh; Hoang Thi Thanh Thuy
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8

Abstract

Purpose - This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth in 44 emerging markets and developing countries.Methods - The threshold regression methodology is employed to analyze data for the period between 1995 and 2015. Export diversifications in terms of both geography and product are measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman market concentration index and overall Theil index, respectively.Findings - The results demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth. Above the threshold, diversified export markets and products boost economic growth. Below the threshold, the positive relationship between diversification in both markets and products and growth is insignificant.Implications - The research implies that export diversification strategy in emerging markets and developing countries should be considered carefully when the level of export diversification is higher than the threshold, which usually occurs in the later stage of diversification.Originality - The study investigates nonlinearity in terms of degrees of diversification instead of degrees of development. With this approach, the threshold is identified to show how economic growth is affected under different regimes.
The spillover of shadow interest rate to the excess returns in emerging markets Oguzhan Ozcelebi; Mehmet Tevfik Izgi
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art3

Abstract

Purpose - This study focuses on the monetary policy transmission of the U.S. on the excess returns in emerging markets by estimating the impacts of changes in the shadow interest rate in the U.S. on the Barclays Benchmark EM FX Trend Excess Return Index (FXERI) and the Barclays Cross Asset Trend Index – EM FX ER (CRASERI).Methods - To account for the spillover effects of the macroeconomic and financial variables, this study employs a bivariate VARMA–AGARCH approach. This study employs 206 daily observations, from February 22, 2002, to July 5, 2019 sourced from The Barclays database and the Reserve Bank of New ZealandFindings - This study finds that the shocks in shadow interest rates will decrease the Barclays Benchmark EM FX Trend Excess Return Index (FXERI) and the Barclays Cross Asset Trend Index – EM FX ER (CRASERI) in the short term. The results of VARMA–BEKK–AGARCH model show that changes/shocks in shadow interest rates will reduce the excess returns in the financial markets of emerging countries in the long term.Implication - The study reveals that a high-interest rate policy could be used as a tool by the FED to prevent excessive returns on emerging countries' financial marketsOriginality - This study contributes to the existing literature by addressing the issue of whether the monetary policy stance of the U.S. after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) can be recognized as the primary source of the currency excess returns and multiple-asset class excess returns for emerging countries.
Exchange rates and oil price under uncertainty and regime switching: A Markov-switching VAR approach Nagmi Moftah Aimer; Abdulmula Albashir Lusta
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art9

Abstract

Purpose - This paper analyses the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty index and oil price changes on the dollar exchange rate over a monthly period from January 2006 to August 2020.Methods - This paper uses the Markov-switching Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model.Findings - The results show that the sharp decline regime in the exchange rate is the most stable. In addition, the impact of the oil price on the exchange rate of the concerned currencies is stronger than the effect of EPU on the exchange rate of these currencies. We also find that most of the effects of oil prices were negative, while positive for the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen exchange rate.Implications - Addressing this investigation contributes to many of the areas covered in recent macroeconomic and finance research. Moreover, such research can help predict changes in currency and oil prices better and create profitable investment and hedging strategies for currencies and oil.Originality - We consider the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price changes on the relationships between those markets and study these relationships under different market conditions.
The potential growth impact of fiscal consolidations Haryo Kuncoro
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the feasibility of fiscal consolidation implementation in the case of Indonesia. The main question to be investigated is whether fiscal consolidation will deteriorate economic growth or not.Methods - This research uses various probabilistic models to assess the successfulness of fiscal adjustments. Probit and logit models are used as a preliminary estimate. The robustness checks are conducted by binary extreme value and Tobit models.Findings - The results indicate that the magnitude of government revenue is less than that of government spending. They seem that increasing government revenue (taxes, for instance) is less harmful compared to reducing expenditures, which denies empirically what Keynesian economists approve of.Implication - The results highlight that Indonesia’s fiscal authority should immediately reform the economic, regulatory, and institutional environments in adopting fiscal austerity policies. The reforms are strongly required to realize fiscal health as well as to promote economic growth.Originality - This paper contributes the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research compares the actual output over the potential output, instead of the past actual output, to evaluate the successfulness of fiscal consolidations.
Does economic freedom affect entrepreneurship? Insights from Africa Folorunsho M Ajide
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art5

Abstract

Purpose - Literature suggests that entrepreneurship can serve as a veritable tool for providing decent employment and improving economic prosperity. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the impact of economic freedom on entrepreneurship in Africa.Design/methodology/approach - The study employs data of 18 African countries covering a period of 2007-2018. The analysis is based on the following techniques: Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), generalized method of moments, Hausman–Taylor IV estimator and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors.Findings - Finding based on Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) technique reveals that economic freedom and its dimensions improve the level of entrepreneurship in Africa. This finding is robust to other alternative estimation techniques. Secured property right, relaxed tax burden, monetary freedom, trade freedom, freedom from corruption, investment freedom, financial freedom, business freedom and labor freedom have positive impact on African entrepreneurship.Practical implications - The study, hence, suggests that policy should be implemented to maximize the level of economic and fundamental freedom of citizens to encourage indigenous entrepreneurs in Africa. Quality of infrastructure should be improved as well as simplification of firms’ registration procedures. African government also needs to build effective and efficient institutional framework to maintain government integrity in Africa.Originality/value - The position of African countries in the nexus between economic freedom and entrepreneurship is rarely discussed in the literature. Hence, this study contributes in this respect and showcases how economic freedom influence the decision to engage in entrepreneurial venture in African perspectives
Education, skills and labour market outcome in Indonesia: An instrumental variable approach Tri Mulyaningsih; Dhian Adhitya; Amelia Choya Tia Rosalia
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6

Abstract

Purpose - This study examines the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Importantly, this study captures the importance of observing cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills associated with personality traits in determining earnings.Methods - A revised Mincer Model serves as a theoretical framework to explain the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Using the Indonesian labour data from the 5th wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), the 2-Stage Least Squares is employed to measure the effects of schooling, cognitive and non-cognitive skills on earnings.Findings - The results show that schooling and skills, both cognitive and personality traits determine the labour market outcomes. In addition, the relationship between education and earning is nonlinear, suggesting that the returns on education varied across education levels.Implication - The policy should aim to enhance human capital by improving knowledge, cognitive and non-cognitive capacities to assist students in achieving their full potentials.Originality - This study contributes to the literature by measuring the effects of unobservable cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills on earnings in developing countries absent in the previous studies. This study also utilizes the instrumental variable approach of 2-Stage Least Squares to deal with omitted variable bias and the endogeneity problem in the basic Mincer model.

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