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Rohim, Fatkhur
Department of Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang
Social Sciences

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On the Reproduction Ratio of Dengue Incidence in Semarang, Indonesia 2015-2018 Puspita, Juni Wijayanti; Fakhruddin, Muhammad; Fahlena, Hilda; Rohim, Fatkhur; Sutimin, Sutimin
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol 2, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2019.2.2.5

Abstract

Dengue is one of the mosquito-borne diseases caused by dengue viruses (DENV), which has become endemic in most tropical and subtropical countries, including Indonesia. Since there is a lot of dengue incidence on children of age less than fourteen years old in Semarang, Indonesia, it is the interest here to analyze the different rates of infection among different age groups. A SIR-UV mathematical model with age structure in human the population is constructed to describe dengue transmission in Semarang from 2015 to 2018. In this study, we separated the human population into four age classes: children (0-4 years), youngster (5-14 years), productive adults (15-60 years) and non-productive adults (over 60 years). We use Particle Swarm  Optimization to obtain optimal parameters for the transmission rates based on the yearly incidence. The basic reproduction ratio (R0) is derived from the Next Generation Matrix and is evaluated by using the optimal parameters for data Semarang in 2015-2018. Numerical simulation results show that the number of dengue incidence is in a good agreement with the actual data in Semarang for 2015-2018.
Co-Authors Fahlena, Hilda Fakhruddin, Muhammad Juni Wijayanti Puspita sutimin sutimin