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All Journal Journal of Business and Management Journal of Innovation, Business and Entrepreneurship
Utama, Akbar Adhi
School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

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Effectiveness for quantity of product using forecasting method in clarents Yuniar, Yura Armianty; Utama, Akbar Adhi
Journal of Innovation, Business and Entrepreneurship Vol 4, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Journal of Innovation, Business and Entrepreneurship

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Abstract

Basically, Forecasting is one of important things the running of a business. In addition, forecasting makes business continuity efficient. There are several factors that determine sales of our business. In the field of fashion trend is a considerable influence, but we still have to determine how many items are effective for us to produce until they run out. Clarents company is a company that sells cardholders, this company is categorized as Small Medium Enterprise. This company previously always used the Rule of Thumb system in its forecasting process. The problem that is always experienced by this company is the accumulation of unsold products. This causes the profit obtained is not in accordance with the specified target. Analysis using 3 months past demand was used to determine the forecasting method. It turns out the most suitable forecasting demand for 6 slot, 12 slot and 24 slot is Time Series Decomposition Multiplicative method, which the method has the lowest MAPE, MAD, MSD. And for the new method we can minimize of lost sale. For model 6 slot we can reduce of lost sale from 62 to 32, for model 12 slot from 124 to 74, and for the 24 method we can reduce of lost sale from 304 to 180. By using this method, we can prepare how many items we have to produce in the future. It can also increase the company's sales results.Keywords: Forecasting demand, Planning, Time Series Decomposition, Target Profit.
Forecasting Method Analysis of Tin Ingots Company in Indonesia. Case Study: PT. Timah Tbk Madani, Fauzan; Utama, Akbar Adhi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 10, No 3 (2021)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract

Mineral mining is performed globally, and mineral demand is continually growing in accordance with human necessities. Especially for Tin, the global tin market to grow at a CAGR of 0.81% during the period 2017-2021. PT. TIMAH Tbk, a state-owned company, operates the official tin mine on Bangka and Belitung Islands. The number of tin ingots is produced based on the RKAP or the planning master for PT. Timah Tbk. This research aims to get the well-performing forecasting method to make the estimation of tin ingots sales.After analyzing the target and realization from 2009-2020, there several error between them with the specification MAD 7,291, MSD 123,983,550, and MAPE 18.1%. This error indicates that the target and realization have 18.1% different. In this research, there are several methods used to get the better forecasting method with lowest error. The methods conducted are based on (Nahmias & Olsen, 2015) time-series method analysis and causal method. The time-series analysis used are 4-Year Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model, and Winter’s Model. Furthermore, the causal method used are exercised by Support Vector Machine (SVM). The demand data used are based on sales of refined tins (tin ingots) from 2009-2020.The result shows that SVM method or causal method has become the forecasting method with lowest forecast error with detail MAD 3,084, MSD 29,360,790, and MAPE 8.9%. This forecasting method is performing well because the factors used that affect the demand of tin in Indonesia have theoretically passed the correlation test (Safitri, 2004).Keywords: Forecasting method analysis, tins company, PT. Timah Tbk.
Co-Authors Madani, Fauzan Yuniar, Yura Armianty