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All Journal Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities
Hanoeboen, Bin Raudha Arif
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Religion Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables and their Effect on Poverty Assel, Muhammad Ridhwan; Hanoeboen, Bin Raudha Arif; Laitupa, Abdul Aziz; Saptenno, Fibryano
Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura Vol. 25 No. 3 (2022): December 2022 - March 2023
Publisher : Universitas Hayam Wuruk Perbanas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v25i3.3451

Abstract

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is crucial to measure dynamic changes during uncertain economic conditions. This study examines and analyzes the appropriate and accurate forecasting model to predict macroeconomic variables in Maluku Province. The main variables used are economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and poverty. The modeling used in this study were Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Model and the Univariate Benchmark Model. The results of this study indicate that the two models have different specifications and forecasting directions. The value of the Univariate Benchmark model’s forecast error size is relatively smaller than that of the Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Model. The results of forecasting macroeconomic variables in Maluku Province have a relatively good level of accuracy and are close to the actual value of the sample period. The Error Correction Model test results show that only the Error Correction Term variable significantly affects the poverty level in the short term. Meanwhile, in the long term, the unemployment rate has a significant effect, and the model used is proven valid. The forecasting results from the model show that the Maluku provincial government must maintain the stability of macroeconomic variables, especially the inflation rate and unemploymentrate, because they tend to increase in the coming year. It can have an impact on reducing people’s purchasing power.
Price Perception and Promotion on Honda Motorcycle Purchase Decision on CV. Various Motorcycles Pelupessy, Merry M.; Hanoeboen, Bin Raudha Arif; Leiwakabessy, Erly; Pitna, Sancyes Henderina
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum2663

Abstract

Does Price Perception and Promotion affect Honda Motorcycle Purchase Decisions? Benefits of research For companies, this research is expected to help as well as contribute thoughts in strategies to increase sales volume. The method used in this study uses multiple linear regression analysis with the analysis tool used is SPSS version 26. This method is deliberately used to partially test and the coefficient of determination of the influence or not between variables. The number of samples from this study amounted to 106 respondents and the sample size was determined based on consideration using the hair formula (2010) The results of the study found that based on the results of analysis using the SPSS Program found that the variable X1 or Price Perception had a significant effect on the Purchase Decision of Honda Motorcycles because the sig value of 0.029 was smaller than 0.05 and t_calculate 2.212 ˃ t_table 1.984 and variable X2 or Promotion
Co-Authors Assel, Muhammad Ridhwan Laitupa, Abdul Aziz Leiwakabessy, Erly Pelupessy, Merry M. Pitna, Sancyes Henderina Saptenno, Fibryano